Athletic Club vs Valencia
Athletic Club
#8 · La Liga
WLWLL
VS
Estadio de San Mamés, Bilbao
Valencia
#12 · La Liga
LWDLL
★ OUR PICK
Athletic Club to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Valencia make Athletic Club the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.83
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.75 for Athletic Club to Win. Our model calculates a 53.5% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Athletic Club will face Valencia in the La Liga at Estadio de San Mamés.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Athletic Club has a 53.5% probability of winning this match. Valencia has a 24.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.3%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Athletic Club53.5%1.75
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.550.1%1.94
Both Teams to Score
Yes53%1.82
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
6.54
15.4%
1-1
6.59
15.2%
2-1
7.73
13%
2-0
7.93
12.7%
0-0
9.50
10.6%
0-1
11.48
8.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.75 | Draw 3.65 | Away 4.57 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.94 | Under 1.87 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.29 | Under 3.41 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.27 | Under 1.32 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.82 | No 1.92 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.19 | 12 1.26 | X2 2.04 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.2%
Over 1.5 Goals72.5%
Over 2.5 Goals50.1%
Over 3.5 Goals28.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 34 | 29 | 1 | 4 | 89 | 31 | 58 | 88 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 34 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 70 | 31 | 39 | 77 | WDWDL |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 64 | 39 | 25 | 68 | WWDWL |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 63 | WWLLL |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 34 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 53 | WDWDD |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 47 | WLLLW |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 44 | WLWLL |
| 12 | Valencia | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 39 | LWDLL |
| 18 |  Alaves | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 36 | LWLDD |
| 19 |  Levante | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 33 | LDWWL |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 28 | LLDWW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAthletic ClubValencia
1.41Goals p.g.1.29
1.53Goals conceded p.g.1.24
6%Clean sheets29%
41%Win rate47%
2.94Avg goals in match2.53
Recent Results
Athletic ClubLAST MATCHES
02 MayAlaves2–4Athletic ClubLa Liga
25 AprAtletico Madrid3–2Athletic ClubLa Liga
21 AprAthletic Club1–0OsasunaLa Liga
12 AprAthletic Club1–2VillarrealLa Liga
05 AprGetafe2–0Athletic ClubLa Liga
22 MarAthletic Club2–1Real BetisLa Liga
7Win41%
2Draw12%
8Lost47%
LAST MATCHESValencia
02 MayValencia0–2Atletico MadridLa Liga
25 AprValencia2–1GironaLa Liga
21 AprMallorca1–1ValenciaLa Liga
11 AprElche1–0ValenciaLa Liga
05 AprValencia2–3Celta VigoLa Liga
21 MarSevilla0–2ValenciaLa Liga
8Win47%
1Draw6%
8Lost47%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAthletic Club
No reported absences
Valencia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Athletic Club Win1.75 (53.5%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.94 (50.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.87 (49.9%)
Both Teams Score1.82 (53%)
BTTS No1.92 (47%)
Speculative
Draw3.65 (22.3%)
Valencia Win4.57 (24.2%)
