Atalanta vs Bologna
Atalanta
#7 · Serie A
DLDDL
VS
New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Bologna
#9 · Serie A
DLLLW
★ OUR PICK
Atalanta to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Bologna make Atalanta the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.69
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.64 for Atalanta to Win. Our model calculates a 55.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Atalanta will face Bologna in the Serie A at New Balance Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Atalanta has a 55.7% probability of winning this match. Bologna has a 23.7% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.7%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Atalanta55.7%1.64
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.554.2%1.66
Both Teams to Score
Yes55.4%1.66
Based on avg. implied odds from 9 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.42
13.5%
2-1
7.49
13.4%
1-0
7.75
12.9%
2-0
8.42
11.9%
3-1
11.72
8.6%
3-0
12.28
8.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.64 | Draw 4.11 | Away 4.82 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.66 | Under 2.23 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.19 | Under 4.41 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.57 | Under 1.46 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.66 | No 2.15 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.18 | 12 1.22 | X2 2.22 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.1%
Over 1.5 Goals78.8%
Over 2.5 Goals54.2%
Over 3.5 Goals36.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 35 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 82 | 31 | 51 | 82 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Napoli | 35 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 70 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  AC Milan | 35 | 19 | 10 | 6 | 48 | 29 | 19 | 67 | LDWLL |
| 4 |  Juventus | 35 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 65 | DDWWW |
| 5 |  AS Roma | 35 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 29 | 23 | 64 | WWDWL |
| 6 |  Como | 35 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 59 | 28 | 31 | 62 | DWLLD |
| 7 | Atalanta | 35 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 47 | 32 | 15 | 55 | DLDLW |
| 9 | Bologna | 35 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 49 | DLLWW |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 27 | 53 | -26 | 28 | LLDLL |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 35 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 24 | 57 | -33 | 20 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Pisa | 35 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 25 | 63 | -38 | 18 | LLLLL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAtalantaBologna
1.53Goals p.g.1.05
1.47Goals conceded p.g.1.24
26%Clean sheets38%
37%Win rate48%
3Avg goals in match2.29
Recent Results
AtalantaLAST MATCHES
02 MayAtalanta0–0GenoaSerie A
27 AprCagliari3–2AtalantaSerie A
22 AprAtalanta1–1LazioCoppa Italia
18 AprAS Roma1–1AtalantaSerie A
11 AprAtalanta0–1JuventusSerie A
06 AprLecce0–3AtalantaSerie A
7Win37%
6Draw32%
6Lost32%
LAST MATCHESBologna
03 MayBologna0–0CagliariSerie A
25 AprBologna0–2AS RomaSerie A
19 AprJuventus2–0BolognaSerie A
16 AprAston Villa4–0BolognaUEFA Europa League
12 AprBologna2–0LecceSerie A
09 AprBologna1–3Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
10Win48%
3Draw14%
8Lost38%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtalanta
No reported absences
Bologna
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Atalanta Win1.64 (55.7%)
Both Teams Score1.66 (55.4%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.66 (54.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.23 (45.8%)
BTTS No2.15 (44.6%)
Speculative
Draw4.11 (20.7%)
Bologna Win4.82 (23.7%)
