AS Roma vs Lazio
AS Roma
#5 · Serie A
WWDWL
VS
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Lazio
#8 · Serie A
WDDWL
★ OUR PICK
AS Roma to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Lazio make AS Roma the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.70
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.65 for AS Roma to Win. Our model calculates a 56.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , AS Roma will face Lazio in the Serie A at Stadio Olimpico.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that AS Roma has a 56% probability of winning this match. Lazio has a 22.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.4%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- AS Roma have won 3 of their last 5 games
- AS Roma have kept clean sheets in 42% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — AS Roma56%1.65
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.550.3%1.93
Both Teams to Score
Yes51.9%1.87
Based on avg. implied odds from 9 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
6.22
16.1%
1-1
6.91
14.5%
2-0
7.30
13.7%
2-1
7.66
13.1%
0-0
10.57
9.6%
3-0
11.72
8.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.65 | Draw 3.87 | Away 5.11 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.93 | Under 1.88 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.28 | Under 3.40 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.26 | Under 1.30 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.87 | No 1.86 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.17 | 12 1.24 | X2 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.5%
Over 1.5 Goals72.6%
Over 2.5 Goals50.3%
Over 3.5 Goals28.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 35 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 82 | 31 | 51 | 82 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Napoli | 35 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 70 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  AC Milan | 35 | 19 | 10 | 6 | 48 | 29 | 19 | 67 | LDWLL |
| 4 |  Juventus | 35 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 65 | DDWWW |
| 5 | AS Roma | 35 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 29 | 23 | 64 | WWDWL |
| 6 |  Como | 35 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 59 | 28 | 31 | 62 | DWLLD |
| 8 | Lazio | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 39 | 34 | 5 | 51 | WDWLD |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 27 | 53 | -26 | 28 | LLDLL |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 35 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 24 | 57 | -33 | 20 | DDLLL |
| 20 |  Pisa | 35 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 25 | 63 | -38 | 18 | LLLLL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAS RomaLazio
1.84Goals p.g.1.22
1.21Goals conceded p.g.1.22
42%Clean sheets28%
42%Win rate33%
3.05Avg goals in match2.44
Recent Results
AS RomaLAST MATCHES
04 MayAS Roma4–0FiorentinaSerie A
25 AprBologna0–2AS RomaSerie A
18 AprAS Roma1–1AtalantaSerie A
10 AprAS Roma3–0PisaSerie A
05 AprInter5–2AS RomaSerie A
22 MarAS Roma1–0LecceSerie A
8Win42%
6Draw32%
5Lost26%
LAST MATCHESLazio
04 MayCremonese1–2LazioSerie A
27 AprLazio3–3UdineseSerie A
22 AprAtalanta1–1LazioCoppa Italia
18 AprNapoli0–2LazioSerie A
13 AprFiorentina1–0LazioSerie A
04 AprLazio1–1ParmaSerie A
6Win33%
8Draw44%
4Lost22%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
1 playerAS Roma1
E. Bove
Missing Fixtureheart problems
Lazio
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
AS Roma Win1.65 (56%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.93 (50.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.88 (49.7%)
Both Teams Score1.87 (51.9%)
BTTS No1.86 (48.1%)
Speculative
Draw3.87 (21.4%)
Lazio Win5.11 (22.5%)
