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Alaves vs Barcelona

La LigaRegular Season - 36
Alaves
#18 · La Liga
LWLDD
VS
Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Barcelona
#1 · La Liga
WWWWW
25.6%
Home Win
19.9%
Draw
54.4%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Barcelona to Win
Solid away form and superior underlying numbers over Alaves make Barcelona the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.88
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.76 for Barcelona to Win. Our model calculates a 54.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Alaves will face Barcelona in the La Liga at Estadio Mendizorrotza.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Alaves has a 25.6% probability of winning this match. Barcelona has a 54.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.9%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Barcelona are in outstanding form with 5 wins from their last 5 matches
  • Barcelona sit 1st in the table, 17 places above their opponents
  • Barcelona average 2.4 goals per game
  • With a combined average of 4.0 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
2 — Barcelona54.4%1.76
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.566.3%1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes65.2%1.42
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-2
8.10
12.4%
1-1
8.33
12%
2-2
10.91
9.2%
0-2
11.17
9%
1-3
11.35
8.9%
0-1
11.44
8.8%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 3.97Draw 4.08Away 1.76
O/U 2.5Over 1.41Under 2.75
O/U 1.5Over 1.11Under 5.82
O/U 3.5Over 2.07Under 1.75
BTTSYes 1.42No 2.72
Double Chance1X 2.0212 1.22X2 1.24

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
94.7%
Over 1.5 Goals
83.9%
Over 2.5 Goals
66.3%
Over 3.5 Goals
45.7%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

La Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Barcelona
34291489315888
WWWWW
2
Real Madrid
34245570313977
WDWDL
3
Villarreal
34215864392568
WWDWL
4
Atletico Madrid
34196958372163
WWLLL
5
Real Betis
341314752411153
WDWDD
6
Celta Vigo
341211114844447
WLLLW
18
Alaves
3499164053-1336
LWLDD
19
Levante
3489173855-1733
LDWWL
20
Oviedo
34610182654-2828
LLDWW

Key Statistics

2025 Season
AlavesBarcelona
1.65Goals p.g.2.35
1.88Goals conceded p.g.1
6%Clean sheets35%
29%Win rate80%
3.53Avg goals in match3.35

Recent Results

AlavesLAST MATCHES
02 MayAlaves2–4Athletic ClubLa Liga
25 AprAlaves2–1MallorcaLa Liga
21 AprReal Madrid2–1AlavesLa Liga
11 AprReal Sociedad3–3AlavesLa Liga
05 AprAlaves2–2OsasunaLa Liga
22 MarCelta Vigo3–4AlavesLa Liga
5Win29%
5Draw29%
7Lost41%
LAST MATCHESBarcelona
02 MayOsasuna1–2BarcelonaLa Liga
25 AprGetafe0–2BarcelonaLa Liga
22 AprBarcelona1–0Celta VigoLa Liga
14 AprAtletico Madrid1–2BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
11 AprBarcelona4–1EspanyolLa Liga
08 AprBarcelona0–2Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
16Win80%
1Draw5%
3Lost15%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Alaves

No reported absences

Barcelona

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.41 (66.3%)
Both Teams Score1.42 (65.2%)
●Value Bets
Alaves Win3.97 (25.6%)
Barcelona Win1.76 (54.4%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.75 (33.7%)
BTTS No2.72 (34.8%)
●Speculative
Draw4.08 (19.9%)
Alaves vs Barcelona Predictions, Stats, H2H - 13 May 2026 | SureTipsPro