Twente vs NEC Nijmegen

EredivisieRegular Season - 31

Twente

#4 · Eredivisie

WWLWW

1 - 1

De Grolsch Veste, Enschede

Referee: J. Kooij

NEC Nijmegen

#3 · Eredivisie

WDWWW

54.2%

Home Win

19.9%

Draw

25.9%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Twente to Win

Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over NEC Nijmegen make Twente the value pick here.

Moneyline

1.67

BEST ODDS

Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.63 for Twente to Win. Our model calculates a 54.2% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Twente will face NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie at De Grolsch Veste.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Twente has a 54.2% probability of winning this match. NEC Nijmegen has a 25.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.9%.

Key factors in this prediction:

Twente are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
NEC Nijmegen are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
NEC Nijmegen average 2.1 goals per game
With a combined average of 4.1 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture

Match Preview

Predictions

Closely matched

Match Result

1 — Twente54.2%1.63

✓ OUR PICK

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.564.1%1.41

Both Teams to Score

Yes63.6%1.45

Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

2-1

7.88

12.7%

1-1

8.45

11.9%

2-0

10.15

9.9%

1-0

10.55

9.5%

3-1

10.60

9.5%

2-2

11.48

8.8%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 1.63	Draw 4.23	Away 4.60
O/U 2.5	Over 1.41	Under 2.77
O/U 1.5	Over 1.11	Under 5.91
O/U 3.5	Over 2.06	Under 1.75
BTTS	Yes 1.45	No 2.58
Double Chance	1X 1.18	12 1.20	X2 2.23

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

94.4%

Over 1.5 Goals

84.1%

Over 2.5 Goals

64.1%

Over 3.5 Goals

46%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	PSV Eindhoven	31	25	2	4	90	41	49	77	WWWLL
2	Feyenoord	30	16	7	7	62	41	21	55	DDDWD
3	NEC Nijmegen	30	15	9	6	72	48	24	54	DWDWW
4	Twente	30	14	11	5	51	32	19	53	WWWLW
5	Ajax	30	13	12	5	57	37	20	51	WLDWL
6	AZ Alkmaar	31	14	7	10	52	45	7	49	DWWLW
16	Excelsior	30	7	7	16	31	51	-20	28	DLDLL
17	NAC Breda	30	5	10	15	30	51	-21	25	DDLLD
18	Heracles	30	5	4	21	34	77	-43	19	LLDLD

Key Statistics

2025 Season

TwenteNEC Nijmegen

1.92Goals p.g.2.15

0.92Goals conceded p.g.1.31

31%Clean sheets23%

62%Win rate62%

2.85Avg goals in match3.46

Recent Results

TwenteLAST MATCHES

04 AprAjax1–2TwenteEredivisie

21 MarFortuna Sittard1–2TwenteEredivisie

15 MarTwente0–2UtrechtEredivisie

08 MarGO Ahead Eagles1–4TwenteEredivisie

01 MarTwente2–0FeyenoordEredivisie

22 FebTwente2–1GroningenEredivisie

8Win62%

3Draw23%

2Lost15%

LAST MATCHESNEC Nijmegen

04 AprExcelsior0–2NEC NijmegenEredivisie

22 MarNEC Nijmegen2–2HeerenveenEredivisie

14 MarPSV Eindhoven2–3NEC NijmegenEredivisie

08 MarNEC Nijmegen3–0FC VolendamEredivisie

03 MarNEC Nijmegen3–2PSV EindhovenKNVB Beker

28 FebNEC Nijmegen2–3Fortuna SittardEredivisie

8Win62%

3Draw23%

2Lost15%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

3 players

Twente1

✕M. Hilgers

Missing FixtureKnee Injury

NEC Nijmegen2

✕A. Kaplan

Missing FixtureYellow Cards

✕B. Onal

QuestionableInjury

Betting Strategy

●High Probability

Over 2.5 Goals1.41 (64.1%)

Both Teams Score1.45 (63.6%)

●Value Bets

Twente Win1.63 (54.2%)

NEC Nijmegen Win4.60 (25.9%)

Under 2.5 Goals2.77 (35.9%)

BTTS No2.58 (36.4%)

●Speculative

Draw4.23 (19.9%)