Waalwijk vs Roda
Waalwijk
WLWDW
VS
Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk (7,508)
Roda
LDWLW
★ OUR PICK
Waalwijk to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Roda make Waalwijk the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.04
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.96 (implied 50.9%) for Waalwijk to Win. Our model calculates a 51.6% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.94. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Waalwijk will face Roda in the Eredivisie at Mandemakers Stadion.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Waalwijk has a 51.6% probability of winning this match. Roda has a 27.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Waalwijk have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Waalwijk average 2.6 goals per game
- With a combined average of 3.8 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Waalwijk51.6%1.96
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.564%1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes64.9%1.42
Based on avg. implied odds from 2 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.40
15.6%
2-1
6.75
14.8%
2-2
8.00
12.5%
1-2
8.50
11.8%
2-0
8.50
11.8%
1-0
8.50
11.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.96 | Draw 3.77 | Away 3.33 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.45 | Under 2.50 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.12 | Under 5.50 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.18 | Under 1.62 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.42 | No 2.65 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.25 | 12 1.22 | X2 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals—
Over 1.5 Goals83.1%
Over 2.5 Goals64%
Over 3.5 Goals42.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 90 | 41 | 49 | 77 | WWWLL |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 41 | 21 | 55 | DDDWD |
| 3 |  NEC Nijmegen | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 48 | 24 | 54 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Twente | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 51 | 32 | 19 | 53 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  Ajax | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 57 | 37 | 20 | 51 | WLDWL |
| 6 |  AZ Alkmaar | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 52 | 45 | 7 | 49 | DWWLW |
| 16 |  Excelsior | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 28 | DLDLL |
| 17 |  NAC Breda | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 25 | DDLLD |
| 18 |  Heracles | 30 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 34 | 77 | -43 | 19 | LLDLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonWaalwijkRoda
2.6Goals p.g.1.2
1.6Goals conceded p.g.1.3
20%Clean sheets10%
60%Win rate20%
4.2Avg goals in match2.5
Recent Results
WaalwijkLAST MATCHES
24 AprWaalwijk4–1Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
17 AprADO Den Haag5–1WaalwijkEerste Divisie
10 AprWaalwijk5–0EmmenEerste Divisie
06 AprHelmond Sport2–2WaalwijkEerste Divisie
03 AprMVV1–3WaalwijkEerste Divisie
21 MarWaalwijk2–3Den BoschEerste Divisie
6Win60%
2Draw20%
2Lost20%
LAST MATCHESRoda
24 AprJong AZ2–0RodaEerste Divisie
17 AprRoda2–2EmmenEerste Divisie
10 AprFC Eindhoven1–3RodaEerste Divisie
06 AprRoda0–1Willem IIEerste Divisie
03 AprDordrecht0–3RodaEerste Divisie
20 MarRoda1–1Helmond SportEerste Divisie
2Win20%
4Draw40%
4Lost40%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersWaalwijk
No reported absences
Roda
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.45 (64%)
Both Teams Score1.42 (64.9%)
Value Bets
Waalwijk Win1.96 (51.6%)
Roda Win3.33 (27.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.50 (36%)
BTTS No2.65 (35.1%)
Speculative
Draw3.77 (21.1%)
