Roda vs Waalwijk
Roda
LDWLW
VS
Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade (19,979)
Waalwijk
WLWDW
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.60
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.54 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 62.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Roda will face Waalwijk in the Eredivisie at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Roda has a 39.6% probability of winning this match. Waalwijk has a 38.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Waalwijk have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Waalwijk average 2.6 goals per game
- With a combined average of 3.8 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Roda39.6%2.42
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.562.4%1.54
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes64.1%1.46
Based on avg. implied odds from 11 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.91
14.5%
2-1
8.96
11.3%
1-2
9.20
11%
2-2
10.18
9.9%
1-0
11.01
9.2%
0-1
11.26
9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.42 | Draw 3.59 | Away 2.60 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.54 | Under 2.37 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.16 | Under 4.88 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.34 | Under 1.57 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.46 | No 2.56 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.45 | 12 1.26 | X2 1.52 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.8%
Over 1.5 Goals80.8%
Over 2.5 Goals62.4%
Over 3.5 Goals40.1%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 90 | 41 | 49 | 77 | WWWLL |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 41 | 21 | 55 | DDDWD |
| 3 |  NEC Nijmegen | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 48 | 24 | 54 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Twente | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 51 | 32 | 19 | 53 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  Ajax | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 57 | 37 | 20 | 51 | WLDWL |
| 6 |  AZ Alkmaar | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 52 | 45 | 7 | 49 | DWWLW |
| 16 |  Excelsior | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 28 | DLDLL |
| 17 |  NAC Breda | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 25 | DDLLD |
| 18 |  Heracles | 30 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 34 | 77 | -43 | 19 | LLDLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonRodaWaalwijk
1.2Goals p.g.2.6
1.3Goals conceded p.g.1.6
10%Clean sheets20%
20%Win rate60%
2.5Avg goals in match4.2
Recent Results
RodaLAST MATCHES
24 AprJong AZ2–0RodaEerste Divisie
17 AprRoda2–2EmmenEerste Divisie
10 AprFC Eindhoven1–3RodaEerste Divisie
06 AprRoda0–1Willem IIEerste Divisie
03 AprDordrecht0–3RodaEerste Divisie
20 MarRoda1–1Helmond SportEerste Divisie
2Win20%
4Draw40%
4Lost40%
LAST MATCHESWaalwijk
24 AprWaalwijk4–1Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
17 AprADO Den Haag5–1WaalwijkEerste Divisie
10 AprWaalwijk5–0EmmenEerste Divisie
06 AprHelmond Sport2–2WaalwijkEerste Divisie
03 AprMVV1–3WaalwijkEerste Divisie
21 MarWaalwijk2–3Den BoschEerste Divisie
6Win60%
2Draw20%
2Lost20%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRoda
No reported absences
Waalwijk
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.54 (62.4%)
Both Teams Score1.46 (64.1%)
Value Bets
Roda Win2.42 (39.6%)
Waalwijk Win2.60 (38.6%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.37 (37.6%)
BTTS No2.56 (35.9%)
Speculative
Draw3.59 (21.9%)
