NAC Breda vs Ajax

EredivisieRegular Season - 31

NAC Breda

#17 · Eredivisie

DLLDL

0 - 2

Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

Referee: S. Gozubuyuk

Ajax

#5 · Eredivisie

LDWLD

29.2%

Home Win

21.9%

Draw

48.9%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Both Teams to Score

Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.

BTTS

1.67

BEST ODDS

Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.61 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 57.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , NAC Breda will face Ajax in the Eredivisie at Rat Verlegh Stadion.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that NAC Breda has a 29.2% probability of winning this match. Ajax has a 48.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.9%.

Key factors in this prediction:

Ajax sit 5th in the table, 12 places above their opponents

Match Preview

Predictions

Closely matched

Match Result

2 — Ajax48.9%1.97

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.555.3%1.72

Both Teams to Score

Yes57.1%1.61

✓ OUR PICK

Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

1-1

6.73

14.9%

1-2

7.91

12.7%

0-1

8.17

12.3%

0-2

9.96

10.1%

2-1

10.91

9.2%

1-0

11.12

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 3.50	Draw 3.65	Away 1.97
O/U 2.5	Over 1.72	Under 2.11
O/U 1.5	Over 1.21	Under 4.08
O/U 3.5	Over 2.76	Under 1.42
BTTS	Yes 1.61	No 2.20
Double Chance	1X 1.79	12 1.25	X2 1.29

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

92.1%

Over 1.5 Goals

77.1%

Over 2.5 Goals

55.3%

Over 3.5 Goals

33.9%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	PSV Eindhoven	31	25	2	4	90	41	49	77	WWWLL
2	Feyenoord	30	16	7	7	62	41	21	55	DDDWD
3	NEC Nijmegen	30	15	9	6	72	48	24	54	DWDWW
4	Twente	30	14	11	5	51	32	19	53	WWWLW
5	Ajax	30	13	12	5	57	37	20	51	WLDWL
6	AZ Alkmaar	31	14	7	10	52	45	7	49	DWWLW
16	Excelsior	30	7	7	16	31	51	-20	28	DLDLL
17	NAC Breda	30	5	10	15	30	51	-21	25	DDLLD
18	Heracles	30	5	4	21	34	77	-43	19	LLDLD

Key Statistics

2025 Season

NAC BredaAjax

1Goals p.g.1.69

1.92Goals conceded p.g.1.23

31%Clean sheets23%

15%Win rate31%

2.92Avg goals in match2.92

Recent Results

NAC BredaLAST MATCHES

05 AprNAC Breda0–0Sparta RotterdamEredivisie

21 MarPEC Zwolle2–1NAC BredaEredivisie

15 MarGO Ahead Eagles6–0NAC BredaEredivisie

08 MarNAC Breda3–3FeyenoordEredivisie

27 FebTelstar3–0NAC BredaEredivisie

21 FebNAC Breda1–0FC VolendamEredivisie

2Win15%

5Draw38%

6Lost46%

LAST MATCHESAjax

04 AprAjax1–2TwenteEredivisie

22 MarFeyenoord1–1AjaxEredivisie

14 MarAjax4–0Sparta RotterdamEredivisie

07 MarGroningen3–1AjaxEredivisie

01 MarPEC Zwolle0–0AjaxEredivisie

21 FebAjax1–1NEC NijmegenEredivisie

4Win31%

6Draw46%

3Lost23%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

6 players

NAC Breda1

✕L. Holtby

QuestionableHealth problems

Ajax5

✕J. Heerkens

QuestionableAnkle Injury

✕K. Fitz-Jim

QuestionableInactive

✕O. Zinchenko

Missing FixtureKnee Injury

✕T. Tomiyasu

Missing FixtureRed Card

✕V. Jaros

Missing FixtureKnee Injury

Betting Strategy

●High Probability

Over 2.5 Goals1.72 (55.3%)

Both Teams Score1.61 (57.1%)

●Value Bets

NAC Breda Win3.50 (29.2%)

Ajax Win1.97 (48.9%)

Under 2.5 Goals2.11 (44.7%)

BTTS No2.20 (42.9%)

●Speculative

Draw3.65 (21.9%)