Heerenveen vs Fortuna Sittard
Heerenveen
#8 · Eredivisie
WDWWW
2 - 1
Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Referee: E. van de Graaf
Fortuna Sittard
#12 · Eredivisie
LLWLW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams Not to Score
One side looks comfortably the stronger and is likely to keep things clean — BTTS No is the value pick.
BTTS
2.60
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 2.51 for Both Teams Not to Score. Our model calculates a 33.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Heerenveen will face Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Heerenveen has a 63.2% probability of winning this match. Fortuna Sittard has a 19.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 17.7%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Heerenveen are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- Heerenveen average 2.0 goals per game
- With a combined average of 3.7 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Heerenveen63.2%1.46
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.571.1%1.35
Both Teams to Score
Yes66.9%1.47
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-1
7.97
12.6%
2-0
9.45
10.6%
1-1
9.48
10.6%
3-1
9.79
10.3%
1-0
10.85
9.3%
3-0
11.73
8.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.46 | Draw 4.85 | Away 5.65 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.35 | Under 3.04 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.09 | Under 6.58 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 1.94 | Under 1.84 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.47 | No 2.51 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.14 | 12 1.16 | X2 2.62 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals95%
Over 1.5 Goals85.8%
Over 2.5 Goals71.1%
Over 3.5 Goals48.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 90 | 41 | 49 | 77 | WWWLL |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 41 | 21 | 55 | DDDWD |
| 3 |  NEC Nijmegen | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 48 | 24 | 54 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Twente | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 51 | 32 | 19 | 53 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  Ajax | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 57 | 37 | 20 | 51 | WLDWL |
| 6 |  AZ Alkmaar | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 52 | 45 | 7 | 49 | DWWLW |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 53 | 50 | 3 | 44 | LWDWW |
| 12 | Fortuna Sittard | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 36 | DLLWL |
| 16 |  Excelsior | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 28 | DLDLL |
| 17 |  NAC Breda | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 25 | DDLLD |
| 18 |  Heracles | 30 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 34 | 77 | -43 | 19 | LLDLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonHeerenveenFortuna Sittard
2Goals p.g.1.69
1.85Goals conceded p.g.2.15
8%Clean sheets0%
54%Win rate38%
3.85Avg goals in match3.85
Recent Results
HeerenveenLAST MATCHES
05 AprHeerenveen4–1HeraclesEredivisie
22 MarNEC Nijmegen2–2HeerenveenEredivisie
14 MarHeerenveen3–0TelstarEredivisie
07 MarExcelsior1–2HeerenveenEredivisie
28 FebHeerenveen2–1Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
21 FebPSV Eindhoven3–1HeerenveenEredivisie
7Win54%
2Draw15%
4Lost31%
LAST MATCHESFortuna Sittard
04 AprAZ Alkmaar2–0Fortuna SittardEredivisie
21 MarFortuna Sittard1–2TwenteEredivisie
14 MarFC Volendam1–2Fortuna SittardEredivisie
08 MarFortuna Sittard1–4TelstarEredivisie
28 FebNEC Nijmegen2–3Fortuna SittardEredivisie
20 FebFortuna Sittard2–1ExcelsiorEredivisie
5Win38%
2Draw15%
6Lost46%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
10 playersHeerenveen4
A. Noppert
Missing FixtureInactive
A. van Axel Dongen
Missing FixtureIllness
L. Smans
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Willemsen
QuestionableInjury
Fortuna Sittard6
A. Halilovic
Missing FixtureInjury
D. Sinkgraven
QuestionableKnee Injury
E. Michut
QuestionableInactive
J. Lonwijk
QuestionableMuscle Injury
M. Branderhorst
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
R. Bayram
QuestionableKnee Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Heerenveen Win1.46 (63.2%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.35 (71.1%)
Both Teams Score1.47 (66.9%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals3.04 (28.9%)
BTTS No2.51 (33.1%)
Speculative
Draw4.85 (17.7%)
Fortuna Sittard Win5.65 (19.1%)
