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Guimaraes vs Casa Pia

Primeira LigaRegular Season - 33
Guimaraes
#7 · Primeira Liga
LWDWL
VS
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
Casa Pia
#16 · Primeira Liga
LLLDL
59%
Home Win
22.2%
Draw
18.8%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Guimaraes to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Casa Pia make Guimaraes the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.83
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.78 (implied 56.2%) for Guimaraes to Win. Our model calculates a 59.0% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.69. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Guimaraes will face Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Guimaraes has a 59% probability of winning this match. Casa Pia has a 18.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.2%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Guimaraes sit 7th in the table, 9 places above their opponents

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Moderate confidence
Match Result
1 — Guimaraes59%1.78
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.550.9%1.90
Both Teams to Score
Yes53.5%1.78
Based on avg. implied odds from 8 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-1
6.48
15.5%
1-0
6.74
14.9%
2-1
7.68
13.2%
2-0
8.12
12.5%
0-0
10.19
9.9%
0-1
11.00
9.2%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 1.78Draw 3.66Away 4.37
O/U 2.5Over 1.90Under 1.90
O/U 1.5Over 1.26Under 3.47
O/U 3.5Over 3.18Under 1.31
BTTSYes 1.78No 1.93
Double Chance1X 1.2012 1.26X2 1.98

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
90.2%
Over 1.5 Goals
73.3%
Over 2.5 Goals
50.9%
Over 3.5 Goals
29.2%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Primeira Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
FC Porto
32274164154985
WWWWD
2
Benfica
322210069224776
DWWWD
3
Sporting CP
32237282235976
WDDLW
4
SC Braga
32169760322857
DLWDW
5
Famalicao
321410841291252
DWDDD
6
GIL Vicente
321311846321450
DWLDW
7
Guimaraes
32126143948-942
LWWDW
16
Casa Pia
32511162956-2726
LLLDL
17
Tondela
32510172452-2825
WDLLD
18
AVS
32211192466-4217
WDDDL

Key Statistics

2025 Season
GuimaraesCasa Pia
1.44Goals p.g.0.76
1.75Goals conceded p.g.1.59
19%Clean sheets24%
38%Win rate12%
3.19Avg goals in match2.35

Recent Results

GuimaraesLAST MATCHES
04 MaySporting CP5–1GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
18 AprGIL Vicente0–1GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
11 AprAVS1–1GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
03 AprGuimaraes5–0TondelaPrimeira Liga
21 MarBenfica3–0GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
14 MarGuimaraes1–2FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
6Win38%
2Draw13%
8Lost50%
LAST MATCHESCasa Pia
03 MayCasa Pia0–1TondelaPrimeira Liga
27 AprGIL Vicente2–1Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
23 AprCasa Pia0–1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
18 AprCasa Pia0–0Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
12 AprAlverca3–1Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
06 AprCasa Pia1–1BenficaPrimeira Liga
2Win12%
7Draw41%
8Lost47%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Guimaraes

No reported absences

Casa Pia

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
Guimaraes Win1.78 (59%)
●Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.90 (50.9%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.90 (49.1%)
Both Teams Score1.78 (53.5%)
BTTS No1.93 (46.5%)
●Speculative
Draw3.66 (22.2%)
Casa Pia Win4.37 (18.8%)
Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Predictions, Stats, H2H - 11 May 2026 | SureTipsPro