GIL Vicente vs Arouca
GIL Vicente
#6 · Primeira Liga
DWLDW
VS
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos
Arouca
#11 · Primeira Liga
DLWLW
★ OUR PICK
GIL Vicente to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Arouca make GIL Vicente the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.74
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.70 for GIL Vicente to Win. Our model calculates a 54.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , GIL Vicente will face Arouca in the Primeira Liga at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that GIL Vicente has a 54.7% probability of winning this match. Arouca has a 23.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.7%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — GIL Vicente54.7%1.70
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.553.7%1.84
Both Teams to Score
Yes55.2%1.78
Based on avg. implied odds from 10 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.77
14.9%
1-0
6.81
14.8%
2-1
7.53
13.4%
2-0
7.77
13%
0-0
10.66
9.6%
0-1
12.19
8.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.70 | Draw 3.76 | Away 4.74 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.84 | Under 1.95 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.25 | Under 3.64 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.03 | Under 1.35 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.78 | No 1.93 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.18 | 12 1.25 | X2 2.11 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.9%
Over 1.5 Goals74.4%
Over 2.5 Goals53.7%
Over 3.5 Goals30.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64 | 15 | 49 | 85 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69 | 22 | 47 | 76 | DWWWD |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 32 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 82 | 23 | 59 | 76 | WDDLW |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 57 | DLWDW |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 52 | DWDDD |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 50 | DWLDW |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41 | 62 | -21 | 36 | DLWLW |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 56 | -27 | 26 | LLLDL |
| 17 |  Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24 | 52 | -28 | 25 | WDLLD |
| 18 |  AVS | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24 | 66 | -42 | 17 | WDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonGIL VicenteArouca
1.59Goals p.g.1.53
1.35Goals conceded p.g.1.47
18%Clean sheets29%
35%Win rate41%
2.94Avg goals in match3
Recent Results
GIL VicenteLAST MATCHES
03 MayRio Ave0–0GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
27 AprGIL Vicente2–1Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
18 AprGIL Vicente0–1GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
13 AprTondela2–2GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
03 AprGIL Vicente3–0AVSPrimeira Liga
21 MarSanta Clara1–0GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
6Win35%
6Draw35%
5Lost29%
LAST MATCHESArouca
02 MayArouca2–2Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
24 AprAlverca2–1AroucaPrimeira Liga
19 AprArouca1–0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
12 AprSC Braga1–0AroucaPrimeira Liga
06 AprArouca3–2EstorilPrimeira Liga
21 MarMoreirense0–1AroucaPrimeira Liga
7Win41%
2Draw12%
8Lost47%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGIL Vicente
No reported absences
Arouca
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.78 (55.2%)
Value Bets
GIL Vicente Win1.70 (54.7%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.84 (53.7%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.95 (46.3%)
BTTS No1.93 (44.8%)
Speculative
Draw3.76 (21.7%)
Arouca Win4.74 (23.6%)
