Excelsior vs Utrecht

EredivisieRegular Season - 31

Excelsior

#16 · Eredivisie

LDLLL

5 - 0

Stadion Woudestein, Rotterdam

Referee: S. van der Eijk

Utrecht

#7 · Eredivisie

LWWDW

30.1%

Home Win

23%

Draw

46.9%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Both Teams to Score

Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.

BTTS

1.65

BEST ODDS

Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.60 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 55.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Excelsior will face Utrecht in the Eredivisie at Stadion Woudestein.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Excelsior has a 30.1% probability of winning this match. Utrecht has a 46.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23%.

Key factors in this prediction:

Utrecht have won 3 of their last 5 games
Utrecht sit 7th in the table, 9 places above their opponents

Match Preview

Predictions

Closely matched

Match Result

2 — Utrecht46.9%2.19

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.552.2%1.76

Both Teams to Score

Yes55.9%1.60

✓ OUR PICK

Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

1-1

6.30

15.9%

1-2

8.28

12.2%

0-1

8.44

11.9%

2-1

10.17

9.9%

1-0

10.42

9.7%

0-2

10.96

9.2%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 3.09	Draw 3.46	Away 2.19
O/U 2.5	Over 1.76	Under 2.06
O/U 1.5	Over 1.22	Under 3.99
O/U 3.5	Over 2.83	Under 1.39
BTTS	Yes 1.60	No 2.22
Double Chance	1X 1.65	12 1.28	X2 1.35

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

91.7%

Over 1.5 Goals

76.6%

Over 2.5 Goals

52.2%

Over 3.5 Goals

32.9%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	PSV Eindhoven	31	25	2	4	90	41	49	77	WWWLL
2	Feyenoord	30	16	7	7	62	41	21	55	DDDWD
3	NEC Nijmegen	30	15	9	6	72	48	24	54	DWDWW
4	Twente	30	14	11	5	51	32	19	53	WWWLW
5	Ajax	30	13	12	5	57	37	20	51	WLDWL
6	AZ Alkmaar	31	14	7	10	52	45	7	49	DWWLW
7	Utrecht	30	12	8	10	49	36	13	44	WLWWD
16	Excelsior	30	7	7	16	31	51	-20	28	DLDLL
17	NAC Breda	30	5	10	15	30	51	-21	25	DDLLD
18	Heracles	30	5	4	21	34	77	-43	19	LLDLD

Key Statistics

2025 Season

ExcelsiorUtrecht

1Goals p.g.1.38

1.69Goals conceded p.g.1.23

15%Clean sheets31%

8%Win rate38%

2.69Avg goals in match2.62

Recent Results

ExcelsiorLAST MATCHES

04 AprExcelsior0–2NEC NijmegenEredivisie

20 MarHeracles1–1ExcelsiorEredivisie

15 MarFeyenoord2–1ExcelsiorEredivisie

07 MarExcelsior1–2HeerenveenEredivisie

01 MarExcelsior0–1GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie

20 FebFortuna Sittard2–1ExcelsiorEredivisie

1Win8%

5Draw38%

7Lost54%

LAST MATCHESUtrecht

04 AprPSV Eindhoven4–3UtrechtEredivisie

22 MarUtrecht2–0GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie

15 MarTwente0–2UtrechtEredivisie

06 MarHeracles0–0UtrechtEredivisie

01 MarUtrecht2–0AZ AlkmaarEredivisie

22 FebUtrecht1–1PEC ZwolleEredivisie

5Win38%

3Draw23%

5Lost38%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

6 players

Excelsior2

✕H. Akujobi

QuestionableKnee Injury

✕M. Jonathans

QuestionableKnee Injury

Utrecht4

✕G. Zechiel

QuestionableInjury

✕J. van Ommeren

Missing FixtureInjury

✕M. Rodriguez

Missing FixtureKnee Injury

✕V. Jensen

Missing FixtureKnee Injury

Betting Strategy

●High Probability

Both Teams Score1.60 (55.9%)

●Value Bets

Excelsior Win3.09 (30.1%)

Utrecht Win2.19 (46.9%)

Over 2.5 Goals1.76 (52.2%)

Under 2.5 Goals2.06 (47.8%)

BTTS No2.22 (44.1%)

●Speculative

Draw3.46 (23%)