Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen
#4 · Bundesliga
WWLLW
VS
BayArena, Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
#12 · Bundesliga
WLLLD
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.64
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.64 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 57.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Bayer Leverkusen will face Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga at BayArena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Bayer Leverkusen has a 65.3% probability of winning this match. Hamburger SV has a 18.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 16.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Bayer Leverkusen sit 4th in the table, 8 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Strong confidenceMatch Result
1 — Bayer Leverkusen65.3%1.45
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.561.6%1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes57.1%1.64
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 1 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-1
8.10
12.3%
2-0
8.20
12.2%
3-1
9.80
10.2%
1-1
9.80
10.2%
1-0
9.90
10.1%
3-0
9.90
10.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.45 | Draw 5.95 | Away 6.36 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.41 | Under 2.80 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.10 | Under 6.30 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.17 | Under 1.81 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.64 | No 2.25 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.15 | 12 1.17 | X2 2.98 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals—
Over 1.5 Goals85.1%
Over 2.5 Goals61.6%
Over 3.5 Goals45.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 116 | 35 | 81 | 83 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 65 | 32 | 33 | 67 | LWLLW |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 63 | 42 | 21 | 62 | LWWWW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 58 | WWLWW |
| 5 |  VfB Stuttgart | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 46 | 20 | 58 | DDLWL |
| 6 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 64 | 48 | 16 | 58 | DWWDL |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 34 | WLLLD |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 42 | 67 | -25 | 26 | DDWLL |
| 17 |  FC St. Pauli | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 26 | LLDLD |
| 18 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 69 | -31 | 23 | DWLWD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonBayer LeverkusenHamburger SV
1.85Goals p.g.1.18
1.15Goals conceded p.g.1.53
30%Clean sheets18%
45%Win rate24%
3Avg goals in match2.71
Recent Results
Bayer LeverkusenLAST MATCHES
02 MayBayer Leverkusen4–1RB LeipzigBundesliga
25 Apr1. FC Köln1–2Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
22 AprBayer Leverkusen0–2Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal
18 AprBayer Leverkusen1–2FC AugsburgBundesliga
11 AprBorussia Dortmund0–1Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
04 AprBayer Leverkusen6–3VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
9Win45%
7Draw35%
4Lost20%
LAST MATCHESHamburger SV
02 MayEintracht Frankfurt1–2Hamburger SVBundesliga
25 AprHamburger SV1–21899 HoffenheimBundesliga
18 AprWerder Bremen3–1Hamburger SVBundesliga
12 AprVfB Stuttgart4–0Hamburger SVBundesliga
04 AprHamburger SV1–1FC AugsburgBundesliga
21 MarBorussia Dortmund3–2Hamburger SVBundesliga
4Win24%
6Draw35%
7Lost41%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBayer Leverkusen
No reported absences
Hamburger SV
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Bayer Leverkusen Win1.45 (65.3%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.41 (61.6%)
Both Teams Score1.64 (57.1%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.80 (38.4%)
BTTS No2.25 (42.9%)
Speculative
Draw5.95 (16.6%)
Hamburger SV Win6.36 (18.1%)
