1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Heidenheim
#18 · Bundesliga
DWLWD
VS
Voith-Arena, Heidenheim
FSV Mainz 05
#10 · Bundesliga
WLDLL
★ OUR PICK
FSV Mainz 05 to Win
Slight away form and superior underlying numbers over 1. FC Heidenheim make FSV Mainz 05 the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.34
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 2.34 for FSV Mainz 05 to Win. Our model calculates a 42.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , 1. FC Heidenheim will face FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga at Voith-Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that 1. FC Heidenheim has a 38.1% probability of winning this match. FSV Mainz 05 has a 42% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.8%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th in the table, 8 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — FSV Mainz 0542%2.34
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.567.1%1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes66.6%1.35
Based on avg. implied odds from 1 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
9.00
11.1%
1-2
9.30
10.8%
2-1
10.00
10%
2-2
10.50
9.5%
1-3
14.00
7.1%
0-1
15.50
6.5%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.77 | Draw 4.41 | Away 2.34 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.33 | Under 3.20 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.07 | Under 7.40 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 1.96 | Under 1.98 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.35 | No 3.02 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.67 | 12 1.25 | X2 1.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals—
Over 1.5 Goals87.4%
Over 2.5 Goals67.1%
Over 3.5 Goals50.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 32 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 116 | 35 | 81 | 83 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 32 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 65 | 32 | 33 | 67 | LWLLW |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 63 | 42 | 21 | 62 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 58 | WWLWW |
| 5 |  VfB Stuttgart | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 66 | 46 | 20 | 58 | DDLWL |
| 6 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 64 | 48 | 16 | 58 | DWWDL |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 37 | WLDLW |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 42 | 67 | -25 | 26 | DDWLL |
| 17 |  FC St. Pauli | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 26 | LLDLD |
| 18 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 69 | -31 | 23 | DWLWD |
Key Statistics
2025 Season1. FC HeidenheimFSV Mainz 05
1.47Goals p.g.1.52
2.06Goals conceded p.g.1.33
6%Clean sheets24%
12%Win rate48%
3.53Avg goals in match2.86
Recent Results
1. FC HeidenheimLAST MATCHES
02 MayBayern München3–31. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
25 Apr1. FC Heidenheim2–0FC St. PauliBundesliga
19 AprSC Freiburg2–11. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
11 Apr1. FC Heidenheim3–1Union BerlinBundesliga
04 AprBorussia Mönchengladbach2–21. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
21 Mar1. FC Heidenheim3–3Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2Win12%
6Draw35%
9Lost53%
LAST MATCHESFSV Mainz 05
03 MayFC St. Pauli1–2FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
25 AprFSV Mainz 053–4Bayern MünchenBundesliga
19 AprBorussia Mönchengladbach1–1FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
16 AprStrasbourg4–0FSV Mainz 05UEFA Europa Conference League
12 AprFSV Mainz 050–1SC FreiburgBundesliga
09 AprFSV Mainz 052–0StrasbourgUEFA Europa Conference League
10Win48%
6Draw29%
5Lost24%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 players1. FC Heidenheim
No reported absences
FSV Mainz 05
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.33 (67.1%)
Both Teams Score1.35 (66.6%)
Value Bets
1. FC Heidenheim Win2.77 (38.1%)
FSV Mainz 05 Win2.34 (42%)
Under 2.5 Goals3.20 (32.9%)
BTTS No3.02 (33.4%)
Speculative
Draw4.41 (19.8%)
