Vaprus vs Trans Narva
Vaprus
#8 · Meistriliiga
LWWDL
VS
Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu
Trans Narva
#10 · Meistriliiga
DLLLL
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.54 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 64.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Vaprus will face Trans Narva in the Meistriliiga at Parnu Rannastaadion.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Vaprus has a 48.1% probability of winning this match. Trans Narva has a 30.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.4%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Vaprus48.1%2.32
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.564.1%1.54
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes65.8%1.47
Based on avg. implied odds from 6 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.41
15.7%
2-1
8.12
12.5%
1-2
8.52
12%
2-2
9.65
10.6%
1-0
9.98
10.1%
0-1
10.40
9.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.32 | Draw 3.57 | Away 2.53 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.54 | Under 2.28 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.14 | Under 4.58 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.32 | Under 1.50 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.47 | No 2.47 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.42 | 12 1.22 | X2 1.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93.8%
Over 1.5 Goals80.1%
Over 2.5 Goals64.1%
Over 3.5 Goals39.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 24 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Kalju Nomme | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 22 | WLWLD |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 18 | WWWLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 17 | LLDWW |
| 5 |  Laagri | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 16 | LWDWL |
| 6 |  Nõmme United | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 13 | WWLLW |
| 8 | Vaprus | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 10 | LWWDL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 9 | LLLWW |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 29 | -20 | 6 | LLLLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonVaprusTrans Narva
1.68Goals p.g.1.25
2.11Goals conceded p.g.2.3
16%Clean sheets20%
32%Win rate20%
3.79Avg goals in match3.55
Recent Results
VaprusLAST MATCHES
02 MayVaprus2–3Nõmme UnitedMeistriliiga
26 AprKalju Nomme1–2VaprusMeistriliiga
21 AprKuressaare0–1VaprusMeistriliiga
18 AprVaprus0–0TammekaMeistriliiga
12 AprFlora Tallinn2–0VaprusMeistriliiga
08 AprFC Levadia Tallinn2–1VaprusMeistriliiga
6Win32%
2Draw11%
11Lost58%
LAST MATCHESTrans Narva
05 MayFlora Tallinn0–0Trans NarvaCup
01 MayTrans Narva0–3Kalju NommeMeistriliiga
26 AprFC Levadia Tallinn7–0Trans NarvaMeistriliiga
22 AprFlora Tallinn6–0Trans NarvaMeistriliiga
18 AprTrans Narva1–2KuressaareMeistriliiga
11 AprNõmme United5–1Trans NarvaMeistriliiga
4Win20%
5Draw25%
11Lost55%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVaprus
No reported absences
Trans Narva
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.54 (64.1%)
Both Teams Score1.47 (65.8%)
Value Bets
Vaprus Win2.32 (48.1%)
Trans Narva Win2.53 (30.5%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.28 (35.9%)
BTTS No2.47 (34.2%)
Speculative
Draw3.57 (21.4%)
