ST Mirren vs Livingston
ST Mirren
#4 · Premiership
WWLWL
0 - 2
The SMISA Stadium, Paisley
Referee: D. Dickinson
Livingston
#6 · Premiership
DLDDD
★ OUR PICK
ST Mirren to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Livingston make ST Mirren the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.70
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.66 for ST Mirren to Win. Our model calculates a 57.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , ST Mirren will face Livingston in the Premiership at The SMISA Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that ST Mirren has a 57.1% probability of winning this match. Livingston has a 21.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- ST Mirren have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — ST Mirren57.1%1.66
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.552.4%1.80
Both Teams to Score
Yes54%1.77
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
6.89
14.6%
1-1
6.91
14.6%
2-1
7.60
13.3%
2-0
7.69
13%
0-0
10.40
9.7%
3-1
12.07
8.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.66 | Draw 3.82 | Away 4.92 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.80 | Under 1.99 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.24 | Under 3.81 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.97 | Under 1.37 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.77 | No 1.96 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.16 | 12 1.23 | X2 2.16 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.9%
Over 1.5 Goals75.4%
Over 2.5 Goals52.4%
Over 3.5 Goals31.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dundee Utd | 33 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 45 | 54 | -9 | 40 | WLWDW |
| 1 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 58 | 28 | 30 | 70 | WDWLW |
| 2 |  Aberdeen | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 33 | WLLDL |
| 2 |  Rangers | 33 | 19 | 12 | 2 | 66 | 31 | 35 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Dundee | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 33 | DLLDW |
| 3 |  Celtic | 33 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 59 | 35 | 24 | 67 | WWLWW |
| 4 | ST Mirren | 33 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 27 | 48 | -21 | 30 | LWWLL |
| 5 |  Kilmarnock | 33 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 37 | 65 | -28 | 28 | DLWWL |
| 6 |  Falkirk | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 46 | LWLDW |
| 6 | Livingston | 33 | 1 | 13 | 19 | 35 | 66 | -31 | 16 | LDLDD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonST MirrenLivingston
1.15Goals p.g.1.08
1.46Goals conceded p.g.1.85
23%Clean sheets8%
38%Win rate0%
2.62Avg goals in match2.92
Recent Results
ST MirrenLAST MATCHES
04 AprST Mirren2–0AberdeenPremiership
21 MarFalkirk1–2ST MirrenPremiership
15 MarST Mirren0–1RangersPremiership
08 MarST Mirren2–1PartickFA Cup
03 MarDundee Utd2–1ST MirrenPremiership
28 FebLivingston1–1ST MirrenPremiership
5Win38%
3Draw23%
5Lost38%
LAST MATCHESLivingston
05 AprLivingston2–2Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
21 MarKilmarnock2–0LivingstonPremiership
14 MarHibernian0–0LivingstonPremiership
28 FebLivingston1–1ST MirrenPremiership
22 FebLivingston2–2RangersPremiership
14 FebDundee2–2LivingstonPremiership
0Win0%
8Draw62%
5Lost38%
Lineups
ConfirmedST Mirren3-4-1-2Confirmed
13Alexander GogićDEF
5Richard KingDEF
21Miguel FreckletonDEF
9Mikael MandronFWD
11Jonah AyungaFWD
88Killian PhillipsFWD
27Ross SinclairGK
6Mark O'HaraMID
24Declan JohnMID
16Allan CampbellMID
8Jacob DevaneyMID
Substitutes
38Thomas FalconerDEF
3Scott TanserDEF
2Jayden RichardsonDEF
20Jake YoungFWD
35Luke DouglasFWD
10Conor McMenaminFWD
17Jalmaro CalvinFWD
99Grant TamoseviciusGK
7Roland IdowuMID
Livingston3-4-2-1Confirmed
27Danny WilsonDEF
23Brooklyn KabongoloDEF
5Ryan McGowanDEF
15Lewis SmithFWD
17Stevie MayFWD
7Joel NoubleFWD
28Jerome PriorGK
19Daniel FinlaysonMID
24Mohammad SyllaMID
37Scott ArfieldMID
3Babacar FatiMID
Substitutes
26Cristian MontanoDEF
2Cammy KerrDEF
9Robbie MuirheadFWD
29Joshua ZimmermanFWD
8Scott PittmanFWD
14Jack HamiltonGK
10Barrie McKayMID
20Emmanuel DansoMID
25Macaulay TaitMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersST Mirren
No reported absences
Livingston
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
ST Mirren Win1.66 (57.1%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.80 (52.4%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.99 (47.6%)
Both Teams Score1.77 (54%)
BTTS No1.96 (46%)
Speculative
Draw3.82 (21.5%)
Livingston Win4.92 (21.4%)
