Middlesbrough vs Southampton
Middlesbrough
#5 · Championship
DWWDL
VS
Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Southampton
#4 · Championship
WDLDW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.80
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.79 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 54.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Middlesbrough will face Southampton in the Championship at Riverside Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Middlesbrough has a 43.5% probability of winning this match. Southampton has a 32.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Southampton average 2.2 goals per game
- With a combined average of 3.9 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Middlesbrough43.5%2.29
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.550.3%1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes54.3%1.79
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.93
16.9%
1-0
7.00
14.3%
0-1
8.53
11.8%
2-1
8.64
11.6%
0-0
8.75
11.5%
2-0
10.17
9.9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.29 | Draw 3.28 | Away 3.07 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.05 | Under 1.75 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.33 | Under 3.17 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.59 | Under 1.26 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.79 | No 1.94 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.35 | 12 1.32 | X2 1.59 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.4%
Over 1.5 Goals70.4%
Over 2.5 Goals49.7%
Over 3.5 Goals26%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97 | 45 | 52 | 95 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Ipswich | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80 | 47 | 33 | 84 | WDDWD |
| 3 |  Millwall | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64 | 49 | 15 | 83 | WDWWD |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82 | 56 | 26 | 80 | WDDWW |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72 | 47 | 25 | 80 | DWWDL |
| 6 |  Hull City | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70 | 66 | 4 | 73 | WLDDL |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 47 | LWLLW |
| 23 |  Leicester | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58 | 68 | -10 | 46 | WDDLL |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29 | 89 | -60 | 0 | WLLDD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonMiddlesbroughSouthampton
1.68Goals p.g.2.18
1Goals conceded p.g.0.91
32%Clean sheets32%
42%Win rate73%
2.68Avg goals in match3.09
Recent Results
MiddlesbroughLAST MATCHES
02 MayWrexham2–2MiddlesbroughChampionship
25 AprMiddlesbrough5–1WatfordChampionship
22 AprMiddlesbrough1–0Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
19 AprIpswich2–2MiddlesbroughChampionship
11 AprMiddlesbrough0–1PortsmouthChampionship
06 AprSwansea2–2MiddlesbroughChampionship
8Win42%
7Draw37%
4Lost21%
LAST MATCHESSouthampton
02 MayPreston1–3SouthamptonChampionship
28 AprSouthampton2–2IpswichChampionship
25 AprManchester City2–1SouthamptonFA Cup
21 AprSouthampton2–2Bristol CityChampionship
18 AprSwansea1–2SouthamptonChampionship
14 AprSouthampton3–0BlackburnChampionship
16Win73%
5Draw23%
1Lost5%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMiddlesbrough
No reported absences
Southampton
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Middlesbrough Win2.29 (43.5%)
Southampton Win3.07 (32.6%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.05 (49.7%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.75 (50.3%)
Both Teams Score1.79 (54.3%)
BTTS No1.94 (45.7%)
Speculative
Draw3.28 (23.9%)