AEK Athens FC vs PAOK
AEK Athens FC
#1 · Super League 1
WLWWL
3 - 0
Allwyn Arena, Athens
Referee: J. Manzano
PAOK
#3 · Super League 1
LDLWD
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.72
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.68 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 59.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , AEK Athens FC will face PAOK in the Super League 1 at Allwyn Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that AEK Athens FC has a 49.9% probability of winning this match. PAOK has a 24.7% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 25.4%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- AEK Athens FC have won 3 of their last 5 games
- AEK Athens FC boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.7 goals per game
- PAOK have a solid defence with 0.7 goals conceded per game
- AEK Athens FC have kept clean sheets in 59% of their matches
- PAOK have kept clean sheets in 57% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — AEK Athens FC49.9%2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.559%1.68
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No53.1%1.86
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.74
17.5%
1-0
6.46
15.6%
0-0
7.61
13.2%
2-1
8.33
12.1%
0-1
8.96
11.3%
2-0
9.25
10.9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.10 | Draw 3.08 | Away 3.59 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.13 | Under 1.68 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.36 | Under 2.98 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.79 | Under 1.23 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.86 | No 1.86 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.26 | 12 1.32 | X2 1.69 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals87.8%
Over 1.5 Goals68.7%
Over 2.5 Goals41%
Over 3.5 Goals24.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens FC | 28 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 53 | 17 | 36 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 1 |  Atromitos | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 37 | WWDDL |
| 1 |  Levadiakos | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 22 | LDWLL |
| 2 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 47 | 12 | 35 | 61 | WLDWD |
| 2 |  Kifisia | 30 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 30 | DDDLL |
| 2 |  OFI | 28 | 11 | 3 | 14 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 20 | WDWLD |
| 3 | PAOK | 28 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 20 | 32 | 58 | LDLWD |
| 4 |  Volos NFC | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 17 | LDWLD |
| 5 |  Panserraikos | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 24 | LWDWD |
| 6 |  Asteras Tripolis | 29 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 22 | DDWLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAEK Athens FCPAOK
1.82Goals p.g.1.07
0.71Goals conceded p.g.0.71
59%Clean sheets57%
53%Win rate36%
2.53Avg goals in match1.79
Recent Results
AEK Athens FCLAST MATCHES
19 AprAEK Athens FC3–0PAOKSuper League 1
09 AprRayo Vallecano3–0AEK Athens FCUEFA Europa Conference League
05 AprOlympiakos Piraeus0–1AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
22 MarAEK Athens FC3–0KifisiaSuper League 1
19 MarAEK Athens FC0–2CeljeUEFA Europa Conference League
15 MarAtromitos2–2AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
9Win53%
5Draw29%
3Lost18%
LAST MATCHESPAOK
19 AprAEK Athens FC3–0PAOKSuper League 1
05 AprPAOK0–0PanathinaikosSuper League 1
22 MarVolos NFC2–1PAOKSuper League 1
15 MarPAOK3–0LevadiakosSuper League 1
08 MarOlympiakos Piraeus0–0PAOKSuper League 1
04 MarKifisia1–4PAOKSuper League 1
5Win36%
5Draw36%
4Lost29%
Lineups
ConfirmedAEK Athens FC4-4-2Confirmed
44Filipe RelvasDEF
12Lazaros RotaDEF
2Harold MoukoudiDEF
29James PenriceDEF
25Barnabás VargaFWD
90ZiniFWD
1Thomas StrakoshaGK
18Razvan MarinMID
8Mijat GacinovicMID
37Roberto PereyraMID
13Orbelín PinedaMID
Substitutes
21Domagoj VidaDEF
15Martin GeorgievDEF
3Stavro PiloDEF
9Luka JovicFWD
11Aboubakary KoitaFWD
91Alberto BrignoliGK
17Dimitrios KaloskamisMID
80Hakim SahaboMID
7Dereck KutesaMID
4Marko GrujicMID
10João MárioMID
23Robert LjubičićMID
PAOK4-2-3-1Confirmed
35Jorge SánchezDEF
21Rahman BabaDEF
6Dejan LovrenDEF
16Tomasz KedzioraDEF
19Alexander JeremejeffFWD
99Antonis TsiftsisGK
27Magomed OzdoevMID
20Christos ZafeirisMID
52Dimitrios ChatsidisMID
65Giannis KonstanteliasMID
11TaisonMID
Substitutes
3Jonjoe KennyDEF
32Greg TaylorDEF
4Alessandro VogliaccoDEF
5Ioannis MichailidisDEF
56Anestis MythouFWD
14Andrija ZivkovicFWD
18Luka IvanušecFWD
1Jiri PavlenkaGK
8Soualiho MeiteMID
2Mady CamaraMID
10Dimitrios PelkasMID
22Alessandro BiancoMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersAEK Athens FC
No reported absences
PAOK
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.68 (59%)
Value Bets
AEK Athens FC Win2.10 (49.9%)
Draw3.08 (25.4%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.13 (41%)
Both Teams Score1.86 (46.9%)
BTTS No1.86 (53.1%)
Speculative
PAOK Win3.59 (24.7%)
