Wrexham vs Stoke City
Wrexham
#6 · Championship
WWLDW
2 - 0
SToK Cae Ras, Wrexham
Referee: A. Herczeg
Stoke City
#17 · Championship
LLDLW
★ OUR PICK
Wrexham to Win
Strong home form and superior underlying numbers over Stoke City make Wrexham the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.73
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.70 (implied 58.7%) for Wrexham to Win. Our model calculates a 60.4% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.66. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Wrexham will face Stoke City in the Championship at SToK Cae Ras.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Wrexham has a 60.4% probability of winning this match. Stoke City has a 18.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.4%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Wrexham have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Wrexham sit 6th in the table, 11 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Wrexham60.4%1.70
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.555.7%1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes56.7%1.70
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.97
14.4%
1-0
7.30
13.8%
2-1
7.50
13.4%
2-0
8.12
12.4%
0-0
11.75
8.6%
3-1
12.21
8.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.70 | Draw 3.81 | Away 4.61 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.74 | Under 2.06 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.22 | Under 3.98 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.81 | Under 1.40 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.70 | No 2.05 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.18 | 12 1.23 | X2 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.5%
Over 1.5 Goals76.5%
Over 2.5 Goals55.7%
Over 3.5 Goals33.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 |  Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 | Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 17 | Stoke City | 44 | 15 | 10 | 19 | 50 | 51 | -1 | 55 | LLDLW |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonWrexhamStoke City
1.71Goals p.g.1.06
1.59Goals conceded p.g.1.65
35%Clean sheets12%
59%Win rate18%
3.29Avg goals in match2.71
Recent Results
WrexhamLAST MATCHES
21 AprOxford United0–1WrexhamChampionship
18 AprWrexham2–0Stoke CityChampionship
07 AprWrexham1–5SouthamptonChampionship
03 AprWest Brom2–2WrexhamChampionship
21 MarSheffield Utd1–2WrexhamChampionship
17 MarWatford3–1WrexhamChampionship
10Win59%
2Draw12%
5Lost29%
LAST MATCHESStoke City
21 AprStoke City1–3MillwallChampionship
18 AprWrexham2–0Stoke CityChampionship
11 AprStoke City1–1BlackburnChampionship
06 AprDerby2–0Stoke CityChampionship
03 AprStoke City2–0Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
20 MarPreston3–1Stoke CityChampionship
3Win18%
5Draw29%
9Lost53%
Lineups
ConfirmedWrexham3-4-2-1Confirmed
5Dominic HyamDEF
2Callum DoyleDEF
24Dan ScarrDEF
28Sam SmithFWD
10Josh WindassFWD
20Oliver RathboneFWD
21Danny WardGK
14George ThomasonMID
37Matty JamesMID
12Issa KaboréMID
15George DobsonMID
Substitutes
4Max CleworthDEF
3Lewis BruntDEF
19Kieffer MooreFWD
11Bailey CadamarteriFWD
33Nathan BroadheadFWD
1Arthur OkonkwoGK
27Lewis O'BrienMID
47Ryan LongmanMID
7Davis Keillor-DunnMID
Stoke City4-2-3-1Confirmed
7Sorba ThomasDEF
17Eric BocatDEF
3Aaron CresswellDEF
18Bosun LawalDEF
20Sam GallagherFWD
31Gavin BazunuGK
8Lewis BakerMID
42Million ManhoefMID
29Lamine CisséMID
10Jun-Ho BaeMID
4Ben PearsonMID
Substitutes
21Jesurun Rak-SakyiFWD
11Róbert BoženíkFWD
9Divin MubamaFWD
49Milan SmitFWD
25Tommy SimkinGK
54Pijus OtegbayoMID
12Tatsuki SekoMID
59Gabriel KellyMID
50Sydney AginaMID
Unavailable Players
13 playersWrexham5
A. James
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
B. Sheaf
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
L. Cacace
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
T. O'Connor
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
Z. Vyner
Missing FixtureInactive
Stoke City8
A. Ampah
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
A. Phillips
Missing FixtureRed Card
B. Gibson
Missing FixtureInjury
B. Wilmot
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
J. Tchamadeu
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
M. Talovierov
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
T. Rigo
Missing FixtureInjury
V. Johansson
Missing FixtureShoulder Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Wrexham Win1.70 (60.4%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.74 (55.7%)
Both Teams Score1.70 (56.7%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.06 (44.3%)
BTTS No2.05 (43.3%)
Speculative
Draw3.81 (21.4%)
Stoke City Win4.61 (18.2%)
