Valerenga vs Lillestrom
Valerenga
#6 · Eliteserien
LDLDW
0 - 2
Intility Arena, Oslo
Referee: Sigurd Smehus Kringstad, Norway
Lillestrom
#2 · Eliteserien
WWWLL
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.54
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.51 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 63.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Valerenga will face Lillestrom in the Eliteserien at Intility Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Valerenga has a 38.2% probability of winning this match. Lillestrom has a 39.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Lillestrom have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Lillestrom average 2.3 goals per game
- With a combined average of 4.1 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Lillestrom39.6%2.56
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.563.9%1.51
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes66%1.43
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.99
14.4%
2-1
9.06
11.1%
1-2
9.10
11.1%
2-2
10.04
10%
0-1
11.53
8.7%
1-0
11.69
8.7%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.49 | Draw 3.54 | Away 2.56 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.51 | Under 2.40 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.14 | Under 5.01 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.27 | Under 1.60 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.43 | No 2.60 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.47 | 12 1.26 | X2 1.51 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.7%
Over 1.5 Goals81.4%
Over 2.5 Goals63.9%
Over 3.5 Goals41.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tromso | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 16 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Lillestrom | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Viking | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  Molde | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 | DWLLW |
| 5 |  Bodo/Glimt | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | WDLW |
| 6 | Valerenga | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 14 |  Brann | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 3 | LLWLL |
| 15 |  Start | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 16 |  Aalesund | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 2 | LDLDL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonValerengaLillestrom
1.88Goals p.g.2.25
1.31Goals conceded p.g.1.56
38%Clean sheets31%
56%Win rate50%
3.19Avg goals in match3.81
Recent Results
ValerengaLAST MATCHES
19 AprValerenga0–2LillestromEliteserien
12 AprFredrikstad1–1ValerengaEliteserien
06 AprValerenga0–1VikingEliteserien
27 MarValerenga3–3IFK GoteborgFriendlies Clubs
22 MarRosenborg0–2ValerengaEliteserien
15 MarValerenga1–0SandefjordEliteserien
9Win56%
2Draw13%
5Lost31%
LAST MATCHESLillestrom
19 AprValerenga0–2LillestromEliteserien
11 AprLillestrom3–1StartEliteserien
06 AprMolde0–1LillestromEliteserien
27 MarOrgryte IS1–0LillestromFriendlies Clubs
22 MarBodo/Glimt4–0LillestromNM Cupen
15 MarAalesund1–3LillestromEliteserien
8Win50%
3Draw19%
5Lost31%
Lineups
ConfirmedValerenga4-4-2Confirmed
3Hakon SjatilDEF
2Kolbeinn FinnssonDEF
37Ivan NäsbergDEF
4Aaron Kiil OlsenDEF
8Henrik BjørdalFWD
17Mathias GrundetjernFWD
1Oscar HedvallGK
77Lucas HarenMID
10Carl LangeMID
28Magnus WestergaardMID
29Ambina Fidèle BriceMID
Substitutes
5Kevin TshiembeDEF
55Sebastian JarlDEF
6Vegar Eggen HedenstadDEF
9Gabriel RajkovicFWD
11Elias SørensenFWD
26Filip ThorvaldsenFWD
21Magnus Smelhus SjøengGK
24Petter StrandMID
15Odin Thiago HolmMID
Lillestrom4-1-4-1Confirmed
28Ruben GabrielsenDEF
5Sander Moen FossDEF
26Yaw PaintsilDEF
2Lars RangerDEF
10Thomas Lehne OlsenFWD
12Pontus DahlbergGK
29Ylldren IbrahimajMID
8Markus KarlsbakkMID
20Felix VáMID
17Eric KitolanoMID
15Salieu DrammehMID
Substitutes
23Ulrik JenssenDEF
3Sturla OttesenDEF
22John KitolanoDEF
9Kparobo ArierhiFWD
19Camil JebaraFWD
14Gustav Kjolstad NyheimFWD
1Stephan HagerupGK
7Karl Linus AlperudMID
6Harald WoxenMID
Unavailable Players
5 playersValerenga1
M. Ofkir
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Lillestrom4
E. B. Garnas
QuestionableInjury
F. Elkaer
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
K. Krygard
Missing FixtureInjury
M. Waehler
Missing FixtureShoulder Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.51 (63.9%)
Both Teams Score1.43 (66%)
Value Bets
Valerenga Win2.49 (38.2%)
Lillestrom Win2.56 (39.6%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.40 (36.1%)
BTTS No2.60 (34%)
Speculative
Draw3.54 (22.1%)
