Swansea vs Southampton
Swansea
#11 · Championship
WLWDD
1 - 2
Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
Referee: O. Langford
Southampton
#4 · Championship
DWWWW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.75
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.70 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 55.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Swansea will face Southampton in the Championship at Swansea.com Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Swansea has a 29.3% probability of winning this match. Southampton has a 50.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Southampton are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- Southampton average 2.2 goals per game
- Southampton have a solid defence with 0.8 goals conceded per game
- With a combined average of 3.7 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Southampton50.1%1.74
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.554.5%1.76
Both Teams to Score
Yes55.4%1.70
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.95
14.5%
0-1
7.28
13.8%
1-2
7.64
13.2%
0-2
8.35
12%
1-0
11.95
8.4%
0-0
12.18
8.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 4.13 | Draw 3.99 | Away 1.74 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.76 | Under 2.04 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.22 | Under 3.94 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.89 | Under 1.38 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.70 | No 2.06 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.02 | 12 1.22 | X2 1.21 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.7%
Over 1.5 Goals76.3%
Over 2.5 Goals54.5%
Over 3.5 Goals32.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 |  Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 | Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 |  Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 11 | Swansea | 44 | 17 | 9 | 18 | 53 | 57 | -4 | 60 | WLWDD |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonSwanseaSouthampton
1.47Goals p.g.2.21
1.35Goals conceded p.g.0.79
29%Clean sheets37%
47%Win rate79%
2.82Avg goals in match3
Recent Results
SwanseaLAST MATCHES
21 AprQPR1–2SwanseaChampionship
18 AprSwansea1–2SouthamptonChampionship
11 AprLeicester0–1SwanseaChampionship
06 AprSwansea2–2MiddlesbroughChampionship
03 AprSheffield Utd3–3SwanseaChampionship
21 MarSwansea0–3CoventryChampionship
8Win47%
3Draw18%
6Lost35%
LAST MATCHESSouthampton
21 AprSouthampton2–2Bristol CityChampionship
18 AprSwansea1–2SouthamptonChampionship
14 AprSouthampton3–0BlackburnChampionship
11 AprSouthampton2–1DerbyChampionship
07 AprWrexham1–5SouthamptonChampionship
04 AprSouthampton2–1ArsenalFA Cup
15Win79%
4Draw21%
0Lost0%
Lineups
ConfirmedSwansea4-2-3-1Confirmed
41Samuel ParkerDEF
15Cameron BurgessDEF
5Ben CabangoDEF
14Josh TymonDEF
9Žan VipotnikFWD
22Lawrence VigourouxGK
20Liam CullenMID
7Melker WidellMID
10Ji-sung EomMID
6Marko StamenićMID
17Gonçalo FrancoMID
Substitutes
25Joel WardDEF
35RonaldFWD
33Adam IdahFWD
18Gustavo NunesFWD
1Andrew FisherGK
31Oliver CooperMID
8Malick YalcouyéMID
21Leo WaltaMID
4Jay FultonMID
Southampton4-2-3-1Confirmed
6Taylor Harwood-BellisDEF
3Ryan ManningDEF
15Nathan WoodDEF
14James BreeDEF
11Ross StewartFWD
41Daniel PeretzGK
20Caspar JanderMID
4Flynn DownesMID
27Kuryu MatsukiMID
10Finn AzazMID
13Leo ScienzaMID
Substitutes
5Jack StephensDEF
34WelingtonDEF
19Cameron ArcherFWD
9Cyle LarinFWD
25George LongGK
18Tom FellowsMID
24Shea CharlesMID
48Cameron BraggMID
23Samuel EdozieMID
Unavailable Players
6 playersSwansea4
E. Galbraith
Missing FixtureInactive
I. Samuels-Smith
Missing FixtureInactive
J. Key
Missing FixtureInactive
Z. Inoussa
Missing FixtureBack Injury
Southampton2
A. McCarthy
Missing FixtureWrist Injury
M. Roerslev Rasmussen
Missing FixtureAchilles Tendon Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.70 (55.4%)
Value Bets
Swansea Win4.13 (29.3%)
Southampton Win1.74 (50.1%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.76 (54.5%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.04 (45.5%)
BTTS No2.06 (44.6%)
Speculative
Draw3.99 (20.6%)
