Stoke City vs Portsmouth
Stoke City
#17 · Championship
LLDLW
1 - 3
Bet365 Stadium, Stoke on Trent
Referee: D. Webb
Portsmouth
#20 · Championship
LWWDD
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.75
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.66 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 55.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Stoke City will face Portsmouth in the Championship at Bet365 Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Stoke City has a 41% probability of winning this match. Portsmouth has a 35% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.9%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Stoke City41%2.63
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.550.5%1.88
Both Teams to Score
Yes55.6%1.66
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.05
16.6%
1-0
8.66
11.6%
0-1
8.66
11.6%
1-2
9.06
11.1%
2-1
9.17
11%
0-0
10.18
9.9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.63 | Draw 3.30 | Away 2.60 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.88 | Under 1.90 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.27 | Under 3.57 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.16 | Under 1.33 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.66 | No 2.12 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.46 | 12 1.31 | X2 1.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.4%
Over 1.5 Goals73.8%
Over 2.5 Goals50.5%
Over 3.5 Goals29.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 |  Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 |  Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 17 | Stoke City | 44 | 15 | 10 | 19 | 50 | 51 | -1 | 55 | LLDLW |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 44 | 13 | 12 | 19 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 51 | LWWWD |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonStoke CityPortsmouth
1.06Goals p.g.1.18
1.65Goals conceded p.g.1.53
12%Clean sheets18%
18%Win rate29%
2.71Avg goals in match2.71
Recent Results
Stoke CityLAST MATCHES
21 AprStoke City1–3MillwallChampionship
18 AprWrexham2–0Stoke CityChampionship
11 AprStoke City1–1BlackburnChampionship
06 AprDerby2–0Stoke CityChampionship
03 AprStoke City2–0Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
20 MarPreston3–1Stoke CityChampionship
3Win18%
5Draw29%
9Lost53%
LAST MATCHESPortsmouth
21 AprCoventry5–1PortsmouthChampionship
18 AprPortsmouth1–0LeicesterChampionship
11 AprMiddlesbrough0–1PortsmouthChampionship
06 AprPortsmouth2–2Oxford UnitedChampionship
03 AprNorwich1–1PortsmouthChampionship
21 MarQPR6–1PortsmouthChampionship
5Win29%
4Draw24%
8Lost47%
Lineups
ConfirmedStoke City4-2-3-1Confirmed
26Ashley PhillipsDEF
50Sydney AginaDEF
17Eric BocatDEF
54Pijus OtegbayoDEF
11Róbert BoženíkFWD
25Tommy SimkinGK
12Tatsuki SekoMID
29Lamine CisséMID
20Sam GallagherMID
4Ben PearsonMID
7Sorba ThomasMID
Substitutes
22Junior TchamadeuDEF
23Ben GibsonDEF
42Million ManhoefFWD
21Jesurun Rak-SakyiFWD
49Milan SmitFWD
34Frank FieldingGK
15Steven N'ZonziMID
8Lewis BakerMID
10Jun-Ho BaeMID
Portsmouth4-2-3-1Confirmed
2Jordan WilliamsDEF
3Connor OgilvieDEF
55Madiodio DiaDEF
14Hayden MatthewsDEF
9Colby BishopFWD
26Josef BursikGK
16Luke Le RouxMID
21Andre DozzellMID
10Adrian SegečićMID
8John SwiftMID
29Harvey BlairMID
Substitutes
17Ibane BowatDEF
5Regan PooleDEF
20Thomas WaddinghamFWD
27Millenic AlliFWD
36Conor ChaplinFWD
40Jacob BrownFWD
30Ben KillipGK
23Josh MurphyMID
38Ebou AdamsMID
Unavailable Players
16 playersStoke City9
A. Ampah
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
A. Cresswell
QuestionableInjury
B. Gibson
Missing FixtureInjury
B. Lawal
Missing FixtureInjury
B. Wilmot
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
J. Tchamadeu
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
M. Talovierov
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
T. Rigo
Missing FixtureInjury
V. Johansson
Missing FixtureShoulder Injury
Portsmouth7
A. Alese
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
F. Umeh
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
G. Caballero
Missing FixtureInactive
K. Anderson
Missing FixtureInjury
M. Kosznovszky
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
T. Devlin
Missing FixtureInjury
Z. Swanson
Missing FixtureInactive
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.66 (55.6%)
Value Bets
Stoke City Win2.63 (41%)
Portsmouth Win2.60 (35%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.88 (50.5%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.90 (49.5%)
BTTS No2.12 (44.4%)
Speculative
Draw3.30 (23.9%)
