Stoke City vs Millwall
Stoke City
#17 · Championship
LLDLW
1 - 3
Bet365 Stadium, Stoke on Trent
Referee: J. Smith
Millwall
#2 · Championship
WDLWD
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.62
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.59 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 55.2% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Stoke City will face Millwall in the Championship at Bet365 Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Stoke City has a 25.7% probability of winning this match. Millwall has a 52.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.8%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Millwall sit 2nd in the table, 15 places above their opponents
- Millwall have kept clean sheets in 44% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Millwall52.5%1.88
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.553.4%1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes55.2%1.59
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.79
14.8%
1-2
7.79
12.9%
0-1
8.23
12.2%
0-2
9.55
10.5%
2-1
11.34
8.9%
2-2
12.03
8.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.77 | Draw 3.73 | Away 1.88 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.68 | Under 2.16 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.20 | Under 4.16 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.67 | Under 1.44 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.59 | No 2.24 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.87 | 12 1.25 | X2 1.26 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.6%
Over 1.5 Goals77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals53.4%
Over 3.5 Goals35.1%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 | Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 |  Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 17 | Stoke City | 44 | 15 | 10 | 19 | 50 | 51 | -1 | 55 | LLDLW |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonStoke CityMillwall
1.06Goals p.g.1.69
1.65Goals conceded p.g.0.88
12%Clean sheets44%
18%Win rate56%
2.71Avg goals in match2.56
Recent Results
Stoke CityLAST MATCHES
21 AprStoke City1–3MillwallChampionship
18 AprWrexham2–0Stoke CityChampionship
11 AprStoke City1–1BlackburnChampionship
06 AprDerby2–0Stoke CityChampionship
03 AprStoke City2–0Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
20 MarPreston3–1Stoke CityChampionship
3Win18%
5Draw29%
9Lost53%
LAST MATCHESMillwall
18 AprMillwall2–0QPRChampionship
10 AprWest Brom0–0MillwallChampionship
06 AprMillwall1–2NorwichChampionship
03 AprMiddlesbrough1–2MillwallChampionship
21 MarIpswich1–1MillwallChampionship
14 MarMillwall1–2BlackburnChampionship
9Win56%
3Draw19%
4Lost25%
Lineups
ConfirmedStoke City4-2-3-1Confirmed
7Sorba ThomasDEF
26Ashley PhillipsDEF
17Eric BocatDEF
50Sydney AginaDEF
11Róbert BoženíkFWD
31Gavin BazunuGK
54Pijus OtegbayoMID
42Million ManhoefMID
15Steven N'ZonziMID
8Lewis BakerMID
12Tatsuki SekoMID
Substitutes
21Jesurun Rak-SakyiFWD
49Milan SmitFWD
20Sam GallagherFWD
9Divin MubamaFWD
29Lamine CisséFWD
25Tommy SimkinGK
10Jun-Ho BaeMID
59Gabriel KellyMID
4Ben PearsonMID
Millwall4-2-3-1Confirmed
5Jake CooperDEF
3Zak SturgeDEF
4Tristan CramaDEF
6Caleb TaylorDEF
19Josh CoburnFWD
13Anthony PattersonGK
7Thierno BalloMID
10Camiel NeghliMID
11Femi AzeezMID
24Casper De NorreMID
49Derek Mazou-SackoMID
Substitutes
2Danny McNamaraDEF
22Tom WatsonFWD
29Zak LovelaceFWD
17Macaulay LangstaffFWD
9Mihailo IvanovićFWD
15Max CrocombeGK
25Luke CundleMID
67Barry BannanMID
18Ryan LeonardMID
Unavailable Players
16 playersStoke City9
A. Ampah
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
A. Cresswell
Missing FixtureInjury
B. Gibson
Missing FixtureInjury
B. Lawal
Missing FixtureInjury
B. Wilmot
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
J. Tchamadeu
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
M. Talovierov
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
T. Rigo
Missing FixtureInjury
V. Johansson
Missing FixtureShoulder Injury
Millwall7
A. Doughty
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
B. Mitchell
Missing FixtureInactive
D. Kelly
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
D. Mazou-Sacko
QuestionableInactive
J. Bryan
Missing FixtureInjury
L. Jensen
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
M. Luongo
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.59 (55.2%)
Value Bets
Stoke City Win3.77 (25.7%)
Millwall Win1.88 (52.5%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.68 (53.4%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.16 (46.6%)
BTTS No2.24 (44.8%)
Speculative
Draw3.73 (21.8%)
