Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 25

Spartak Moscow

#5 · Premier League

WDWWW

3 - 1

Lukoil Arena, Moscow

Referee: R. Shafeev

Akhmat

#9 · Premier League

LDLWD

62.9%

Home Win

19.1%

Draw

17.9%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Over 2.5 Goals

Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.

Totals

1.76

BEST ODDS

Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.73 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Spartak Moscow will face Akhmat in the Premier League at Lukoil Arena.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Spartak Moscow has a 62.9% probability of winning this match. Akhmat has a 17.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.1%.

Key factors in this prediction:

Spartak Moscow are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
Akhmat have kept clean sheets in 40% of their matches

Match Preview

Predictions

Moderate confidence

Match Result

1 — Spartak Moscow62.9%1.44

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.555%1.73

✓ OUR PICK

Both Teams to Score

Yes52.7%1.88

Based on avg. implied odds from 5 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

2-0

6.46

15.5%

1-0

6.56

15.3%

2-1

7.64

13.1%

1-1

8.10

12.3%

3-0

9.31

10.7%

3-1

11.12

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 1.44	Draw 4.62	Away 6.97
O/U 2.5	Over 1.73	Under 2.19
O/U 1.5	Over 1.20	Under 4.32
O/U 3.5	Over 2.65	Under 1.45
BTTS	Yes 1.88	No 1.85
Double Chance	1X 1.09	12 1.20	X2 2.86

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

93.3%

Over 1.5 Goals

78.3%

Over 2.5 Goals

55%

Over 3.5 Goals

35.3%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Zenit	26	16	8	2	45	17	28	56	DWDWW
2	FC Krasnodar	25	16	6	3	51	19	32	54	DDWWW
3	Lokomotiv	26	13	10	3	51	33	18	49	DWDLW
4	Baltika	25	11	12	2	36	15	21	45	DDDWW
5	Spartak Moscow	25	13	6	6	41	33	8	45	WDWWL
6	CSKA Moscow	26	13	5	8	38	28	10	44	DDLWW
9	Akhmat	25	8	7	10	30	34	-4	31	LDLWD
14	Krylia Sovetov	26	5	8	13	27	47	-20	23	LDDLD
15	Nizhny Novgorod	26	6	4	16	22	42	-20	22	LDDLL
16	FC Sochi	26	5	3	18	24	54	-30	18	WWWLL

Key Statistics

2025 Season

Spartak MoscowAkhmat

1.81Goals p.g.1.53

1.25Goals conceded p.g.1.07

31%Clean sheets40%

62%Win rate47%

3.06Avg goals in match2.6

Recent Results

Spartak MoscowLAST MATCHES

19 AprSpartak Moscow3–1AkhmatPremier League

08 AprZenit0–0Spartak MoscowCup

05 AprSpartak Moscow2–1LokomotivPremier League

22 MarFC Orenburg0–2Spartak MoscowPremier League

18 MarSpartak Moscow1–0DynamoCup

14 MarZenit2–0Spartak MoscowPremier League

10Win63%

3Draw19%

3Lost19%

LAST MATCHESAkhmat

19 AprSpartak Moscow3–1AkhmatPremier League

11 AprKrylia Sovetov2–2AkhmatPremier League

04 AprAkhmat0–1FC KrasnodarPremier League

21 MarAkhmat1–0FC RostovPremier League

15 MarAkron1–1AkhmatPremier League

09 MarLokomotiv2–2AkhmatPremier League

7Win47%

4Draw27%

4Lost27%

Lineups

Confirmed

Spartak Moscow4-2-3-1Confirmed

4Alexander DjikuDEF

83Gedson FernandesDEF

97Daniil DenisovDEF

3Christopher WoohDEF

9Manfred UgaldeFWD

98Aleksandr MaksimenkoGK

7Pablo SolariMID

18Nail UmyarovMID

68Ruslan LitvinovMID

5Esequiel BarcoMID

10Marquinhos CostaMID

Substitutes

2Oleg ReabciukDEF

14Ilya SamoshnikovDEF

91Anton ZabolotnyiFWD

11Levi GarcíaFWD

1Ilya PomazunGK

56Alexander DovbnyaGK

24Nikita MassalygaMID

35Christopher MartinsMID

47Roman ZobninMID

28Daniil ZorinMID

27Igor DmitrievMID

Akhmat4-2-3-1Confirmed

22Mehdi ZareDEF

5Klisman CakeDEF

8Miroslav BogosavacDEF

81Maksim SidorovDEF

77Georgi MelkadzeFWD

1Vadim UlyanovGK

17Egas CacinturaMID

19Sergey PryakhinMID

9Brian MansillaMID

10Rifat ZhemaletdinovMID

20Maksim SamorodovMID

Substitutes

4Turpal-Ali IbishevDEF

90Ousmane N’DongDEF

40Rizvan UtsievDEF

82Daniil KhlusevichDEF

13Mohamed KonatéFWD

88Giorgi SheliaGK

72Yakhya MagomedovGK

80Valeriy TsarukyanMID

37Papa Amady GadioMID

23Galymzhan KenzhebekMID

27Akhmed DavlitgereevMID

Unavailable Players

4 players

Spartak Moscow3

✕D. Zorin

Missing FixtureInactive

✕S. Babic

Missing FixtureKnee Injury

✕V. Saus

Missing FixtureInjury

Akhmat1

✕L. Sadulaev

Missing FixtureYellow Cards

Betting Strategy

●High Probability

Spartak Moscow Win1.44 (62.9%)

Over 2.5 Goals1.73 (55%)

●Value Bets

Under 2.5 Goals2.19 (45%)

Both Teams Score1.88 (52.7%)

BTTS No1.85 (47.3%)

●Speculative

Draw4.62 (19.1%)

Akhmat Win6.97 (17.9%)