Southampton vs Bristol City
Southampton
#4 · Championship
DWWWW
2 - 2
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Referee: E. Bell
Bristol City
#12 · Championship
LWWLD
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.73
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.68 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.5% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Southampton will face Bristol City in the Championship at St. Mary's Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Southampton has a 66.8% probability of winning this match. Bristol City has a 15% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 18.2%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Southampton are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- Southampton sit 4th in the table, 8 places above their opponents
- Southampton average 2.2 goals per game
- Southampton boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.8 goals per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Strong confidenceMatch Result
1 — Southampton66.8%1.38
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.555.5%1.68
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes50.3%1.89
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-0
6.45
15.6%
1-0
6.75
14.9%
2-1
7.58
13.3%
1-1
8.40
12%
3-0
8.86
11.3%
3-1
10.51
9.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.38 | Draw 4.72 | Away 7.90 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.68 | Under 2.15 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.21 | Under 4.17 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.66 | Under 1.44 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.89 | No 1.83 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.07 | 12 1.16 | X2 2.91 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.1%
Over 1.5 Goals77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals55.5%
Over 3.5 Goals35%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 |  Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 | Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 |  Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 12 | Bristol City | 44 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 56 | 57 | -1 | 59 | DLDWW |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonSouthamptonBristol City
2.21Goals p.g.1.07
0.79Goals conceded p.g.1.67
37%Clean sheets13%
79%Win rate33%
3Avg goals in match2.73
Recent Results
SouthamptonLAST MATCHES
21 AprSouthampton2–2Bristol CityChampionship
18 AprSwansea1–2SouthamptonChampionship
14 AprSouthampton3–0BlackburnChampionship
11 AprSouthampton2–1DerbyChampionship
07 AprWrexham1–5SouthamptonChampionship
04 AprSouthampton2–1ArsenalFA Cup
15Win79%
4Draw21%
0Lost0%
LAST MATCHESBristol City
18 AprBristol City2–4NorwichChampionship
06 AprBristol City1–0Sheffield UtdChampionship
03 AprCharlton1–2Bristol CityChampionship
21 MarBristol City0–1West BromChampionship
14 MarMiddlesbrough1–1Bristol CityChampionship
10 MarLeicester2–0Bristol CityChampionship
5Win33%
2Draw13%
8Lost53%
Lineups
ConfirmedSouthampton4-2-3-1Confirmed
5Jack StephensDEF
14James BreeDEF
6Taylor Harwood-BellisDEF
3Ryan ManningDEF
9Cyle LarinFWD
41Daniel PeretzGK
24Shea CharlesMID
4Flynn DownesMID
27Kuryu MatsukiMID
19Cameron ArcherMID
10Finn AzazMID
Substitutes
15Nathan WoodDEF
34WelingtonDEF
11Ross StewartFWD
25George LongGK
20Caspar JanderMID
13Leo ScienzaMID
18Tom FellowsMID
23Samuel EdozieMID
48Cameron BraggMID
Bristol City4-2-3-1Confirmed
21Neto BorgesDEF
3Cameron PringDEF
38Noah EileDEF
2Ross McCrorieDEF
11Delano BurgzorgFWD
23Radek VitekGK
14Tomi HorvatMID
40Sam MorsyMID
12Jason KnightMID
10Scott TwineMID
20Sam BellMID
Substitutes
24Seb NaylorDEF
19George TannerDEF
16Robert DickieDEF
48Ranel YoungFWD
18Emil Riis JacobsenFWD
30Sinclair ArmstrongFWD
32Lewis ThomasGK
44George EarthyMID
17Mark SykesMID
Unavailable Players
6 playersSouthampton2
A. McCarthy
Missing FixtureWrist Injury
M. Roerslev Rasmussen
Missing FixtureAchilles Tendon Injury
Bristol City4
J. Williams
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
L. McNally
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Bird
Missing FixtureInjury
R. Atkinson
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Southampton Win1.38 (66.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.68 (55.5%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.15 (44.5%)
Both Teams Score1.89 (50.3%)
BTTS No1.83 (49.7%)
Speculative
Draw4.72 (18.2%)
Bristol City Win7.90 (15%)
