QPR vs Derby
QPR
#13 · Championship
LDWWW
2 - 3
Loftus Road, London
Referee: J. Busby
Derby
#8 · Championship
WWLWW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.75
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.71 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 55.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , QPR will face Derby in the Championship at Loftus Road.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that QPR has a 34.5% probability of winning this match. Derby has a 42.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.3%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- QPR have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Derby are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- Derby have kept clean sheets in 40% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Derby42.2%2.29
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.551.3%1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes55.4%1.71
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.11
16.5%
0-1
7.57
13.3%
1-2
8.54
11.8%
1-0
8.80
11.4%
0-0
9.55
10.5%
2-1
10.01
10.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.97 | Draw 3.37 | Away 2.29 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.95 | Under 1.84 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.29 | Under 3.36 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.31 | Under 1.30 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.71 | No 2.03 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.59 | 12 1.28 | X2 1.36 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.2%
Over 1.5 Goals72.2%
Over 2.5 Goals51.3%
Over 3.5 Goals28.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 |  Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 |  Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 8 | Derby | 44 | 19 | 9 | 16 | 63 | 55 | 8 | 66 | LWLWL |
| 13 | QPR | 44 | 16 | 10 | 18 | 59 | 67 | -8 | 58 | LLDDW |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonQPRDerby
1.33Goals p.g.1.67
1.73Goals conceded p.g.1.07
13%Clean sheets40%
33%Win rate60%
3.07Avg goals in match2.73
Recent Results
QPRLAST MATCHES
18 AprMillwall2–0QPRChampionship
06 AprPreston1–1QPRChampionship
03 AprQPR2–1WatfordChampionship
21 MarQPR6–1PortsmouthChampionship
14 MarLeicester1–3QPRChampionship
11 MarBirmingham1–0QPRChampionship
5Win33%
3Draw20%
7Lost47%
LAST MATCHESDerby
18 AprDerby1–0Oxford UnitedChampionship
06 AprDerby2–0Stoke CityChampionship
03 AprCoventry3–2DerbyChampionship
21 MarDerby1–0BirminghamChampionship
16 MarPortsmouth0–1DerbyChampionship
10 MarMillwall1–0DerbyChampionship
9Win60%
1Draw7%
5Lost33%
Lineups
ConfirmedQPR4-4-2Confirmed
27Amadou Salif MbengueDEF
18Rhys Norrington-DaviesDEF
6Jake Clarke-SalterDEF
37Ronnie EdwardsDEF
23Daniel BennieFWD
22Richard KoneFWD
1Paul NardiGK
40Jonathan VaraneMID
20Harvey ValeMID
11Paul SmythMID
21Kieran MorganMID
Substitutes
2Kealey AdamsonDEF
28EsquerdinhaDEF
14Koki SaitoFWD
26Rayan KolliFWD
16Rumarn BurrellFWD
29Ben HamerGK
24Nicolas MadsenMID
10Ilias ChairMID
48Isak AlemayehuMID
Derby3-4-2-1Confirmed
6Sondre LangåsDEF
5Matt ClarkeDEF
28Dion SandersonDEF
9Carlton MorrisFWD
19Sammie SzmodicsFWD
25Ben Brereton DíazFWD
1Jacob Widell ZetterströmGK
27Lewis TravisMID
23Joe WardMID
22Max JohnstonMID
29Oscar FrauloMID
Substitutes
4Danny BatthDEF
3Craig ForsythDEF
44Isaac GordonDEF
15Lars-Jørgen SalvesenFWD
31Josh VickersGK
34Jaydon BanelMID
54Cruz AllenMID
18David OzohMID
37Owen EamesMID
Unavailable Players
8 playersQPR5
J. Dunne
QuestionableInactive
K. Dembele
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
K. Poku
QuestionableInjury
K. Saito
Missing FixtureInactive
Z. Larkeche
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Derby3
B. Clark
Missing FixtureInjury
C. Elder
Missing FixtureToe Injury
P. Agyemang
Missing FixtureAchilles Tendon Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.71 (55.4%)
Value Bets
QPR Win2.97 (34.5%)
Derby Win2.29 (42.2%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.95 (51.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.84 (48.7%)
BTTS No2.03 (44.6%)
Speculative
Draw3.37 (23.3%)
