Portsmouth vs Leicester

ChampionshipRegular Season - 43

Portsmouth

#20 · Championship

LWWDD

1 - 0

Fratton Park, Portsmouth

Referee: Gavin Ward, England

Leicester

#23 · Championship

LDDDL

41.9%

Home Win

32.6%

Draw

25.6%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Under 2.5 Goals

Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.

Totals

1.73

BEST ODDS

Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.65 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 53.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Portsmouth will face Leicester in the Championship at Fratton Park.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Portsmouth has a 41.9% probability of winning this match. Leicester has a 25.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 32.6%.

Match Preview

Predictions

Closely matched

Match Result

1 — Portsmouth41.9%2.39

Over / Under 2.5

Under 2.553.9%1.65

✓ OUR PICK

Both Teams to Score

Yes51.9%1.87

Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

1-1

5.82

17.2%

1-0

6.67

15%

0-1

7.81

12.8%

0-0

7.85

12.8%

2-1

8.84

11.4%

1-2

10.33

9.8%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 2.39	Draw 3.17	Away 2.99
O/U 2.5	Over 2.22	Under 1.65
O/U 1.5	Over 1.39	Under 2.89
O/U 3.5	Over 4.01	Under 1.22
BTTS	Yes 1.87	No 1.84
Double Chance	1X 1.35	12 1.32	X2 1.56

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

88.2%

Over 1.5 Goals

67.5%

Over 2.5 Goals

46.1%

Over 3.5 Goals

23.4%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Championship Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Coventry	44	26	11	7	90	44	46	89	WDDDW
2	Millwall	45	23	11	11	61	48	13	80	WWDLW
3	Ipswich	43	22	13	8	75	45	30	79	WDLWW
4	Southampton	44	21	13	10	77	53	24	76	DWWWW
5	Middlesbrough	44	21	13	10	65	44	21	76	WDLDL
6	Wrexham	44	19	13	12	66	60	6	70	WWLLD
20	Portsmouth	44	13	12	19	45	62	-17	51	LWWWD
22	Oxford United	44	10	14	20	41	56	-15	44	LLWDD
23	Leicester	45	11	16	18	56	67	-11	43	DLLDD
24	Sheffield Wednesday	44	1	12	31	26	84	-58	-3	LDDDL

Key Statistics

2025 Season

PortsmouthLeicester

1.18Goals p.g.1.07

1.53Goals conceded p.g.1.67

18%Clean sheets13%

29%Win rate7%

2.71Avg goals in match2.73

Recent Results

PortsmouthLAST MATCHES

21 AprCoventry5–1PortsmouthChampionship

18 AprPortsmouth1–0LeicesterChampionship

11 AprMiddlesbrough0–1PortsmouthChampionship

06 AprPortsmouth2–2Oxford UnitedChampionship

03 AprNorwich1–1PortsmouthChampionship

21 MarQPR6–1PortsmouthChampionship

5Win29%

4Draw24%

8Lost47%

LAST MATCHESLeicester

18 AprPortsmouth1–0LeicesterChampionship

06 AprSheffield Wednesday1–1LeicesterChampionship

03 AprLeicester2–2PrestonChampionship

21 MarWatford0–0LeicesterChampionship

14 MarLeicester1–3QPRChampionship

10 MarLeicester2–0Bristol CityChampionship

1Win7%

6Draw40%

8Lost53%

Lineups

Confirmed

Portsmouth4-2-3-1Confirmed

2Jordan WilliamsDEF

6Conor ShaughnessyDEF

5Regan PooleDEF

24Terry DevlinDEF

9Colby BishopFWD

1Nicolas SchmidGK

37Keshi AndersonMID

7Marlon PackMID

21Andre DozzellMID

27Millenic AlliMID

36Conor ChaplinMID

Substitutes

55Madiodio DiaDEF

17Ibane BowatDEF

29Harvey BlairFWD

40Jacob BrownFWD

26Josef BursikGK

8John SwiftMID

38Ebou AdamsMID

23Josh MurphyMID

10Adrian SegečićMID

Leicester4-2-3-1Confirmed

33Luke ThomasDEF

24Jamaal LascellesDEF

23Jannik VestergaardDEF

21Ricardo PereiraDEF

20Patson DakaFWD

31Asmir BegovićGK

8Harry WinksMID

7Abdul Fatawu IssahakuMID

14Bobby De cordova-ReidMID

10Stephy MavididiMID

17Hamza ChoudhuryMID

Substitutes

15Harry SouttarDEF

56Olabade AlukoDEF

9Jordan AyewFWD

1Jakub StolarczykGK

28Jeremy MongaMID

29Divine MukasaMID

6Jordan JamesMID

18Joe AriboMID

22Oliver SkippMID

Unavailable Players

8 players

Portsmouth6

✕A. Alese

Missing FixtureMuscle Injury

✕C. Ogilvie

Missing FixtureRed Card

✕F. Umeh

Missing FixtureHamstring Injury

✕G. Caballero

Missing FixtureInactive

✕M. Kosznovszky

Missing FixtureKnee Injury

✕Z. Swanson

Missing FixtureInactive

Leicester2

✕A. Ramsey

Missing FixtureHamstring Injury

✕V. Kristiansen

Missing FixtureKnee Injury

Betting Strategy

●Value Bets

Portsmouth Win2.39 (41.9%)

Draw3.17 (32.6%)

Leicester Win2.99 (25.6%)

Over 2.5 Goals2.22 (46.1%)

Under 2.5 Goals1.65 (53.9%)

Both Teams Score1.87 (51.9%)

BTTS No1.84 (48.1%)