Parma vs Pisa
Parma
#14 · Serie A
WDLLD
1 - 0
Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
Referee: A. Calzavara
Pisa
#20 · Serie A
LLLLW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.58
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.52 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 58.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Parma will face Pisa in the Serie A at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Parma has a 54.9% probability of winning this match. Pisa has a 19.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 25.8%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Parma have kept clean sheets in 43% of their matches
- Both teams average a combined 1.5 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Parma54.9%2.27
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.558.4%1.52
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No52.6%1.71
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.65
17.7%
1-0
5.75
17.5%
0-0
6.70
15%
0-1
7.52
13.3%
2-1
8.99
11.2%
2-0
9.40
10.7%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.27 | Draw 2.99 | Away 3.51 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.52 | Under 1.52 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.48 | Under 2.56 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.94 | Under 1.16 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.05 | No 1.71 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.30 | 12 1.37 | X2 1.62 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals86.2%
Over 1.5 Goals63.4%
Over 2.5 Goals41.6%
Over 3.5 Goals19%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 78 | 29 | 49 | 78 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Napoli | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 69 | WLDWW |
| 3 |  AC Milan | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 66 | WLLWL |
| 4 |  Juventus | 33 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 57 | 29 | 28 | 63 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  Como | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 57 | 28 | 29 | 58 | LLDWW |
| 6 |  AS Roma | 33 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 29 | 17 | 58 | DWLWL |
| 14 | Parma | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 39 | WDDLL |
| 18 |  Lecce | 33 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 28 | DLLLL |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 33 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 23 | 56 | -33 | 18 | LLLLL |
| 20 | Pisa | 33 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 60 | -36 | 18 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonParmaPisa
0.79Goals p.g.0.73
1.29Goals conceded p.g.2.33
43%Clean sheets7%
36%Win rate7%
2.07Avg goals in match3.07
Recent Results
ParmaLAST MATCHES
18 AprUdinese0–1ParmaSerie A
04 AprLazio1–1ParmaSerie A
21 MarParma0–2CremoneseSerie A
13 MarTorino4–1ParmaSerie A
08 MarFiorentina0–0ParmaSerie A
27 FebParma1–1CagliariSerie A
5Win36%
5Draw36%
4Lost29%
LAST MATCHESPisa
19 AprPisa1–2GenoaSerie A
10 AprAS Roma3–0PisaSerie A
05 AprPisa0–1TorinoSerie A
22 MarComo5–0PisaSerie A
15 MarPisa3–1CagliariSerie A
07 MarJuventus4–0PisaSerie A
1Win7%
3Draw20%
11Lost73%
Lineups
ConfirmedParma3-5-2Confirmed
39Alessandro CircatiDEF
3Abdoulaye NdiayeDEF
37Mariano TroiloDEF
9Mateo PellegrinoFWD
7Gabriel StrefezzaFWD
31Zion SuzukiGK
10Adrián BernabéMID
41Hans Nicolussi CavigliaMID
16Mandela KeitaMID
14Emanuele ValeriMID
15Enrico DelpratoMID
Substitutes
29Franco CarboniDEF
27Sascha BritschgiDEF
5Lautaro ValentiDEF
23Nesta ElphegeFWD
11Pontus AlmqvistFWD
17Jacob OndrejkaFWD
66Filippo RinaldiGK
40Edoardo CorviGK
22Oliver SørensenMID
24Christian OrdoñezMID
8Nahuel EstévezMID
21Gaetano OristanioMID
Pisa3-5-2Confirmed
5Simone CanestrelliDEF
4Antonio CaraccioloDEF
2Rosen BozhinovDEF
32Stefano MoreoFWD
81Filip StojilkovićFWD
1Adrian ŠemperGK
21Isak VuralMID
3Samuele AngoriMID
14Ebenezer AkinsanmiroMID
20Michel AebischerMID
7Mehdi LérisMID
Substitutes
35Felipe LoyolaDEF
33Arturo CalabresiDEF
26Francesco CoppolaDEF
39Raúl AlbiolDEF
19Samuel Iling JuniorFWD
9Henrik Wendel MeisterFWD
22Simone ScuffetGK
12NicolasGK
11Juan CuadradoMID
8Malthe HøjholtMID
23Calvin StengsMID
36Gabriele PiccininiMID
99LorranMID
15Idrissa TouréMID
Unavailable Players
11 playersParma4
B. Cremaschi
Missing FixtureInjury
L. Valenti
QuestionableMuscle Injury
M. Frigan
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Pellegrino
QuestionableInjury
Pisa7
D. Denoon
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
Lorran
QuestionableCoach's decision
M. Leris
QuestionableInjury
M. Marin
Missing FixtureInjury
M. Tramoni
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
R. Durosinmi
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
S. Iling Junior
QuestionableCoach's decision
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.52 (58.4%)
Value Bets
Parma Win2.27 (54.9%)
Draw2.99 (25.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.52 (41.6%)
Both Teams Score2.05 (47.4%)
BTTS No1.71 (52.6%)
Speculative
Pisa Win3.51 (19.3%)
