Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain
#11 · UEFA Champions League
WLWWW
VS
Parc des Princes, Paris
Bayern München
#2 · UEFA Champions League
WWWWW
★ OUR PICK
Paris Saint Germain to Win
Slight home form and superior underlying numbers over Bayern München make Paris Saint Germain the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.40
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 2.33 for Paris Saint Germain to Win. Our model calculates a 41.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Paris Saint Germain will face Bayern München in the UEFA Champions League at Parc des Princes.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Paris Saint Germain has a 41.1% probability of winning this match. Bayern München has a 38% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Paris Saint Germain are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- Bayern München are in outstanding form with 5 wins from their last 5 matches
- Bayern München sit 2nd in the table, 9 places above their opponents
- Paris Saint Germain average 2.4 goals per game
- Bayern München average 3.1 goals per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Paris Saint Germain41.1%2.33
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.570.4%1.35
Both Teams to Score
Yes70.4%1.34
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
8.29
12.1%
2-1
9.25
10.9%
2-2
9.73
10.3%
1-2
10.35
9.7%
3-1
13.83
7.3%
1-0
14.18
7.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.33 | Draw 3.88 | Away 2.71 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.35 | Under 3.04 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.09 | Under 6.58 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 1.92 | Under 1.89 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.34 | No 3.10 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.45 | 12 1.24 | X2 1.59 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals95.1%
Over 1.5 Goals85.8%
Over 2.5 Goals70.4%
Over 3.5 Goals49.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
UEFA Champions League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 19 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Bayern München | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 18 | WWWLW |
| 4 |  Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 17 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 16 | WWWLD |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 16 | WWLWD |
| 11 | Paris Saint Germain | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 14 | DLDWL |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 3 | LLLDL |
| 35 |  Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 1 | LLLLL |
| 36 |  Kairat Almaty | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 1 | LLLLL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonParis Saint GermainBayern München
2.39Goals p.g.3.11
0.94Goals conceded p.g.1.06
50%Clean sheets28%
72%Win rate83%
3.33Avg goals in match4.17
Recent Results
Paris Saint GermainLAST MATCHES
22 AprParis Saint Germain3–0NantesLigue 1
19 AprParis Saint Germain1–2LyonLigue 1
14 AprLiverpool0–2Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
08 AprParis Saint Germain2–0LiverpoolUEFA Champions League
03 AprParis Saint Germain3–1ToulouseLigue 1
21 MarNice0–4Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
13Win72%
2Draw11%
3Lost17%
LAST MATCHESBayern München
22 AprBayer Leverkusen0–2Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal
19 AprBayern München4–2VfB StuttgartBundesliga
11 AprFC St. Pauli0–5Bayern MünchenBundesliga
07 AprReal Madrid1–2Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
04 AprSC Freiburg2–3Bayern MünchenBundesliga
21 MarBayern München4–0Union BerlinBundesliga
15Win83%
2Draw11%
1Lost6%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersParis Saint Germain
No reported absences
Bayern München
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.35 (70.4%)
Both Teams Score1.34 (70.4%)
Value Bets
Paris Saint Germain Win2.33 (41.1%)
Bayern München Win2.71 (38%)
Under 2.5 Goals3.04 (29.6%)
BTTS No3.10 (29.6%)
Speculative
Draw3.88 (20.9%)
