Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
#14 · UEFA Champions League
DLWLL
VS
Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
Arsenal
#1 · UEFA Champions League
LLWLL
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.95
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.88 (implied 53.1%) for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 55.1% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.81. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Atletico Madrid will face Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League at Metropolitano Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Atletico Madrid has a 38.1% probability of winning this match. Arsenal has a 37.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.4%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Arsenal sit 1st in the table, 13 places above their opponents
- Atletico Madrid average 2.1 goals per game
- Arsenal have kept clean sheets in 44% of their matches
- With a combined average of 3.9 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Atletico Madrid38.1%2.85
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.550.4%2.24
Both Teams to Score
Yes55.1%1.88
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.77
17.4%
0-1
6.95
14.4%
1-0
7.44
13.5%
0-0
8.01
12.5%
1-2
9.18
10.9%
2-1
9.99
10.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.85 | Draw 3.18 | Away 2.57 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.24 | Under 1.65 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.39 | Under 2.91 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.16 | Under 1.21 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.88 | No 1.85 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.50 | 12 1.34 | X2 1.41 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals88.4%
Over 1.5 Goals67.7%
Over 2.5 Goals50.4%
Over 3.5 Goals22.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
UEFA Champions League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 19 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 18 | WWWLW |
| 4 |  Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 17 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 16 | WWWLD |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 16 | WWLWD |
| 14 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13 | LDWWW |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 3 | LLLDL |
| 35 |  Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 1 | LLLLL |
| 36 |  Kairat Almaty | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 1 | LLLLL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAtletico MadridArsenal
2.06Goals p.g.1.83
1.71Goals conceded p.g.0.83
24%Clean sheets44%
47%Win rate61%
3.76Avg goals in match2.67
Recent Results
Atletico MadridLAST MATCHES
18 AprAtletico Madrid2–2Real SociedadCopa del Rey
11 AprSevilla2–1Atletico MadridLa Liga
08 AprBarcelona0–2Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
04 AprAtletico Madrid1–2BarcelonaLa Liga
22 MarReal Madrid3–2Atletico MadridLa Liga
18 MarTottenham3–2Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
8Win47%
2Draw12%
7Lost41%
LAST MATCHESArsenal
19 AprManchester City2–1ArsenalPremier League
11 AprArsenal1–2BournemouthPremier League
07 AprSporting CP0–1ArsenalUEFA Champions League
04 AprSouthampton2–1ArsenalFA Cup
22 MarArsenal0–2Manchester CityLeague Cup
17 MarArsenal2–0Bayer LeverkusenUEFA Champions League
11Win61%
3Draw17%
4Lost22%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtletico Madrid
No reported absences
Arsenal
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.88 (55.1%)
Value Bets
Atletico Madrid Win2.85 (38.1%)
Arsenal Win2.57 (37.5%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.24 (50.4%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.65 (49.6%)
BTTS No1.85 (44.9%)
Speculative
Draw3.18 (24.4%)
