Oxford United vs Wrexham
Oxford United
#22 · Championship
LDDLD
0 - 1
Kassam Stadium, Oxford
Referee: M. Donohue
Wrexham
#6 · Championship
WWLDW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.75
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.70 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 52.8% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Oxford United will face Wrexham in the Championship at Kassam Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Oxford United has a 34.7% probability of winning this match. Wrexham has a 41% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.3%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Wrexham have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Wrexham sit 6th in the table, 16 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Wrexham41%2.95
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.552.8%1.70
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes52.3%1.83
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.88
17%
1-0
7.05
14.2%
0-1
7.88
12.7%
0-0
8.28
12.1%
2-1
8.99
11.2%
1-2
10.08
10%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.39 | Draw 3.22 | Away 2.95 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.11 | Under 1.70 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.35 | Under 3.02 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.78 | Under 1.24 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.83 | No 1.89 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.38 | 12 1.32 | X2 1.54 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals88.7%
Over 1.5 Goals69%
Over 2.5 Goals47.2%
Over 3.5 Goals24.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 |  Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 | Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 22 | Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonOxford UnitedWrexham
0.8Goals p.g.1.71
1.33Goals conceded p.g.1.59
20%Clean sheets35%
20%Win rate59%
2.13Avg goals in match3.29
Recent Results
Oxford UnitedLAST MATCHES
18 AprDerby1–0Oxford UnitedChampionship
06 AprPortsmouth2–2Oxford UnitedChampionship
03 AprOxford United1–1Hull CityChampionship
21 MarSouthampton2–0Oxford UnitedChampionship
14 MarOxford United1–1CharltonChampionship
11 MarOxford United1–0BlackburnChampionship
3Win20%
5Draw33%
7Lost47%
LAST MATCHESWrexham
21 AprOxford United0–1WrexhamChampionship
18 AprWrexham2–0Stoke CityChampionship
07 AprWrexham1–5SouthamptonChampionship
03 AprWest Brom2–2WrexhamChampionship
21 MarSheffield Utd1–2WrexhamChampionship
17 MarWatford3–1WrexhamChampionship
10Win59%
2Draw12%
5Lost29%
Lineups
ConfirmedOxford United4-2-3-1Confirmed
3Ciaron BrownDEF
15Brodie SpencerDEF
2Sam LongDEF
6Michal HelikDEF
27Will LankshearFWD
1Jamie CummingGK
8Cameron BrannaganMID
44Myles Peart-HarrisMID
38Jamie McDonnellMID
17Stanley MillsMID
5Yunus KonakMID
Substitutes
37Christ MakossoDEF
24Hidde ter AvestDEF
9Mark HarrisFWD
11Ole RomenyFWD
10Aidomo EmakhuFWD
21Matt IngramGK
32Jin-woo JeonMID
33Jamie DonleyMID
4Will VaulksMID
Wrexham3-5-1-1Confirmed
5Dominic HyamDEF
2Callum DoyleDEF
24Dan ScarrDEF
28Sam SmithFWD
10Josh WindassFWD
21Danny WardGK
15George DobsonMID
47Ryan LongmanMID
37Matty JamesMID
20Oliver RathboneMID
14George ThomasonMID
Substitutes
12Issa KaboréDEF
4Max CleworthDEF
3Lewis BruntDEF
11Bailey CadamarteriFWD
33Nathan BroadheadFWD
19Kieffer MooreFWD
1Arthur OkonkwoGK
7Davis Keillor-DunnMID
27Lewis O'BrienMID
Unavailable Players
10 playersOxford United5
B. De Keersmaecker
Missing FixtureShoulder Injury
G. Leigh
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
J. Currie
QuestionableInactive
P. Placheta
Missing FixtureInjury
T. Goodrham
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
Wrexham5
A. James
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
B. Sheaf
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
L. Cacace
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
T. O'Connor
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
Z. Vyner
Missing FixtureInactive
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Oxford United Win2.39 (34.7%)
Wrexham Win2.95 (41%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.11 (47.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.70 (52.8%)
Both Teams Score1.83 (52.3%)
BTTS No1.89 (47.7%)
Speculative
Draw3.22 (24.3%)
