Norwich vs Swansea
Norwich
#9 · Championship
WWLWD
1 - 1
Carrow Road, Norwich
Referee: T. Parsons
Swansea
#11 · Championship
WLWDD
★ OUR PICK
Norwich to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Swansea make Norwich the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.72
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.67 for Norwich to Win. Our model calculates a 55.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Norwich will face Swansea in the Championship at Carrow Road.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Norwich has a 55.3% probability of winning this match. Swansea has a 23.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.2%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Norwich have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Norwich55.3%1.67
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.553.2%1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes54.6%1.69
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.09
14.1%
1-0
7.30
13.7%
2-1
7.49
13.4%
2-0
8.21
12.2%
3-1
11.75
8.6%
0-0
12.20
8.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.67 | Draw 3.93 | Away 4.72 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.71 | Under 2.11 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.21 | Under 4.06 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.73 | Under 1.42 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.69 | No 2.06 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.17 | 12 1.22 | X2 2.13 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.9%
Over 1.5 Goals76.9%
Over 2.5 Goals53.2%
Over 3.5 Goals34.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 |  Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 |  Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 9 | Norwich | 44 | 19 | 7 | 18 | 61 | 53 | 8 | 64 | WWLWD |
| 11 | Swansea | 44 | 17 | 9 | 18 | 53 | 57 | -4 | 60 | WLWDD |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonNorwichSwansea
1.61Goals p.g.1.47
0.94Goals conceded p.g.1.35
33%Clean sheets29%
67%Win rate47%
2.56Avg goals in match2.82
Recent Results
NorwichLAST MATCHES
21 AprNorwich2–1DerbyChampionship
18 AprBristol City2–4NorwichChampionship
11 AprNorwich0–2IpswichChampionship
06 AprMillwall1–2NorwichChampionship
03 AprNorwich1–1PortsmouthChampionship
21 MarCharlton0–1NorwichChampionship
12Win67%
1Draw6%
5Lost28%
LAST MATCHESSwansea
21 AprQPR1–2SwanseaChampionship
18 AprSwansea1–2SouthamptonChampionship
11 AprLeicester0–1SwanseaChampionship
06 AprSwansea2–2MiddlesbroughChampionship
03 AprSheffield Utd3–3SwanseaChampionship
21 MarSwansea0–3CoventryChampionship
8Win47%
3Draw18%
6Lost35%
Lineups
ConfirmedNorwich4-2-3-1Confirmed
35Kellen FisherDEF
3Jack StaceyDEF
6Harry DarlingDEF
33José CórdobaDEF
37Mohamed TouréFWD
1Vladan KovačevićGK
7Pelle MattssonMID
8Liam GibbsMID
20Anis Ben SlimaneMID
23Kenny McLeanMID
25Edmond-Paris MaghomaMID
Substitutes
21Ali AhmedDEF
15Ruairi McConvilleDEF
46Errol Mundle-SmithFWD
30Mathias KvistgaardenFWD
32Daniel GrimshawGK
26Sam FieldMID
16Jacob WrightMID
27Jeffrey SchluppMID
18Forson AmankwahMID
Swansea4-2-3-1Confirmed
5Ben CabangoDEF
14Josh TymonDEF
15Cameron BurgessDEF
6Marko StamenićDEF
9Žan VipotnikFWD
22Lawrence VigourouxGK
25Joel WardMID
35RonaldMID
17Gonçalo FrancoMID
10Ji-sung EomMID
8Malick YalcouyéMID
Substitutes
2Josh KeyDEF
23Ricardo SantosDEF
20Liam CullenFWD
33Adam IdahFWD
1Andrew FisherGK
31Oliver CooperMID
4Jay FultonMID
21Leo WaltaMID
7Melker WidellMID
Unavailable Players
15 playersNorwich11
A. Crnac
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
B. Chrisene
Missing FixtureInactive
G. Forsyth
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
H. Amass
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
J. Makama
Missing FixtureFoot Injury
L. Mahovo
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
M. Jurasek
Missing FixtureFoot Injury
M. Topic
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
P. A. Diallo
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
S. Duffy
QuestionableHamstring Injury
T. Springett
Missing FixtureBack Injury
Swansea4
E. Galbraith
Missing FixtureInactive
I. Samuels-Smith
Missing FixtureInactive
J. Key
Missing FixtureInactive
Z. Inoussa
QuestionableBack Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Norwich Win1.67 (55.3%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.71 (53.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.11 (46.8%)
Both Teams Score1.69 (54.6%)
BTTS No2.06 (45.4%)
Speculative
Draw3.93 (21.2%)
Swansea Win4.72 (23.5%)
