Norwich vs Derby
Norwich
#9 · Championship
WWLWD
2 - 1
Carrow Road, Norwich
Referee: T. Reeves
Derby
#8 · Championship
WWLWW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.73
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.67 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 54.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Norwich will face Derby in the Championship at Carrow Road.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Norwich has a 47.2% probability of winning this match. Derby has a 29.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Norwich have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Derby are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- Derby have kept clean sheets in 40% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Norwich47.2%2.02
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.551%1.81
Both Teams to Score
Yes54.9%1.67
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.38
15.7%
1-0
7.48
13.4%
2-1
7.86
12.8%
2-0
9.62
10.5%
0-1
10.59
9.5%
0-0
10.71
9.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.02 | Draw 3.48 | Away 3.54 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.81 | Under 1.98 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.24 | Under 3.73 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.99 | Under 1.36 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.67 | No 2.09 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.28 | 12 1.27 | X2 1.76 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91%
Over 1.5 Goals74.9%
Over 2.5 Goals51%
Over 3.5 Goals31.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 |  Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 |  Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 8 | Derby | 44 | 19 | 9 | 16 | 63 | 55 | 8 | 66 | LWLWL |
| 9 | Norwich | 44 | 19 | 7 | 18 | 61 | 53 | 8 | 64 | WWLWD |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonNorwichDerby
1.61Goals p.g.1.67
0.94Goals conceded p.g.1.07
33%Clean sheets40%
67%Win rate60%
2.56Avg goals in match2.73
Recent Results
NorwichLAST MATCHES
21 AprNorwich2–1DerbyChampionship
18 AprBristol City2–4NorwichChampionship
11 AprNorwich0–2IpswichChampionship
06 AprMillwall1–2NorwichChampionship
03 AprNorwich1–1PortsmouthChampionship
21 MarCharlton0–1NorwichChampionship
12Win67%
1Draw6%
5Lost28%
LAST MATCHESDerby
18 AprDerby1–0Oxford UnitedChampionship
06 AprDerby2–0Stoke CityChampionship
03 AprCoventry3–2DerbyChampionship
21 MarDerby1–0BirminghamChampionship
16 MarPortsmouth0–1DerbyChampionship
10 MarMillwall1–0DerbyChampionship
9Win60%
1Draw7%
5Lost33%
Lineups
ConfirmedNorwich4-2-3-1Confirmed
8Liam GibbsDEF
35Kellen FisherDEF
3Jack StaceyDEF
33José CórdobaDEF
37Mohamed TouréFWD
1Vladan KovačevićGK
7Pelle MattssonMID
23Kenny McLeanMID
15Ruairi McConvilleMID
25Edmond-Paris MaghomaMID
18Forson AmankwahMID
Substitutes
6Harry DarlingDEF
30Mathias KvistgaardenFWD
46Errol Mundle-SmithFWD
32Daniel GrimshawGK
26Sam FieldMID
27Jeffrey SchluppMID
16Jacob WrightMID
52Zachary BaumannMID
20Anis Ben SlimaneMID
Derby4-2-3-1Confirmed
23Joe WardDEF
2Derry MurkinDEF
5Matt ClarkeDEF
6Sondre LangåsDEF
9Carlton MorrisFWD
1Jacob Widell ZetterströmGK
19Sammie SzmodicsMID
25Ben Brereton DíazMID
34Jaydon BanelMID
27Lewis TravisMID
18David OzohMID
Substitutes
3Craig ForsythDEF
4Danny BatthDEF
44Isaac GordonDEF
22Max JohnstonDEF
15Lars-Jørgen SalvesenFWD
31Josh VickersGK
29Oscar FrauloMID
37Owen EamesMID
54Cruz AllenMID
Unavailable Players
16 playersNorwich11
A. Crnac
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
B. Chrisene
Missing FixtureInactive
G. Forsyth
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
H. Amass
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
J. Makama
Missing FixtureFoot Injury
L. Mahovo
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
M. Jurasek
Missing FixtureFoot Injury
M. Topic
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
P. A. Diallo
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
S. Duffy
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
T. Springett
Missing FixtureBack Injury
Derby5
B. Clark
Missing FixtureInjury
C. Elder
Missing FixtureToe Injury
D. Murkin
QuestionableInjury
D. Sanderson
QuestionableInjury
P. Agyemang
Missing FixtureAchilles Tendon Injury
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Norwich Win2.02 (47.2%)
Derby Win3.54 (29.6%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.81 (51%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.98 (49%)
Both Teams Score1.67 (54.9%)
BTTS No2.09 (45.1%)
Speculative
Draw3.48 (23.1%)
