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Napoli vs Lazio

Serie ARegular Season - 33
Napoli
#2 · Serie A
LWWWW
0 - 2
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
Referee: L. Zufferli
Lazio
#9 · Serie A
DWLDW
58.3%
Home Win
21.9%
Draw
19.9%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Napoli to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Lazio make Napoli the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.65
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.54 for Napoli to Win. Our model calculates a 58.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Napoli will face Lazio in the Serie A at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Napoli has a 58.3% probability of winning this match. Lazio has a 19.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.9%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Napoli are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Moderate confidence
Match Result
1 — Napoli58.3%1.54
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.555.4%1.68
Both Teams to Score
No54.3%1.61
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-0
5.04
19.9%
2-0
5.88
17.1%
1-1
7.24
13.8%
2-1
8.01
12.6%
0-0
8.33
12.1%
3-0
9.87
10.2%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 1.54Draw 3.84Away 6.93
O/U 2.5Over 2.19Under 1.68
O/U 1.5Over 1.37Under 2.98
O/U 3.5Over 3.97Under 1.23
BTTSYes 2.23No 1.61
Double Chance1X 1.1012 1.24X2 2.46

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
88.6%
Over 1.5 Goals
68.4%
Over 2.5 Goals
44.6%
Over 3.5 Goals
23.7%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Serie A Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Inter
33253578294978
WWWDD
2
Napoli
34216752331969
WLDWW
3
AC Milan
33199548272166
WLLWL
4
Juventus
33189657292863
WWWDW
5
Como
331610757282958
LLDWW
6
AS Roma
331841146291758
DWLWL
9
Lazio
331211103430447
WLDWW
18
Lecce
3377192246-2428
DLLLL
19
Hellas Verona
3339212356-3318
LLLLL
20
Pisa
33212192460-3618
LLLLW

Key Statistics

2025 Season
NapoliLazio
1.43Goals p.g.1.06
1.43Goals conceded p.g.1.12
14%Clean sheets31%
50%Win rate31%
2.86Avg goals in match2.19

Recent Results

NapoliLAST MATCHES
18 AprNapoli0–2LazioSerie A
06 AprNapoli1–0AC MilanSerie A
20 MarCagliari0–1NapoliSerie A
14 MarNapoli2–1LecceSerie A
06 MarNapoli2–1TorinoSerie A
28 FebHellas Verona1–2NapoliSerie A
7Win50%
3Draw21%
4Lost29%
LAST MATCHESLazio
22 AprAtalanta1–1LazioCoppa Italia
18 AprNapoli0–2LazioSerie A
13 AprFiorentina1–0LazioSerie A
04 AprLazio1–1ParmaSerie A
22 MarBologna0–2LazioSerie A
15 MarLazio1–0AC MilanSerie A
5Win31%
7Draw44%
4Lost25%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

12 players

Napoli5

✕A. Rrahmani
QuestionableHamstring Injury
✕A. Vergara
Missing FixtureFoot Injury
✕David Neres
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
✕G. Di Lorenzo
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
✕R. Lukaku
Missing FixtureHip Injury

Lazio7

✕A. Furlanetto
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
✕A. Marusic
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
✕D. Maldini
QuestionableFoot Injury
✕I. Provedel
Missing FixtureShoulder Injury
✕M. Gila
QuestionableKnee Injury
✕N. Rovella
Missing FixtureBroken collarbone
✕S. Gigot
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
Napoli Win1.54 (58.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.68 (55.4%)
●Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals2.19 (44.6%)
Both Teams Score2.23 (45.7%)
BTTS No1.61 (54.3%)
●Speculative
Draw3.84 (21.9%)
Lazio Win6.93 (19.9%)
Napoli vs Lazio Predictions, Stats, H2H - 18 Apr 2026 | SureTipsPro