Nõmme United vs Laagri

Nõmme United
#8 · Meistriliiga
LLDLW
1 - 2
Referee: J. Frischer

Laagri
#4 · Meistriliiga
WLWWL
★ OUR PICK
Nõmme United to Win
Slight home form and superior underlying numbers over Laagri make Nõmme United the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.98
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.90 for Nõmme United to Win. Our model calculates a 43.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Nõmme United will face Laagri in the Meistriliiga.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Nõmme United has a 43.1% probability of winning this match. Laagri has a 36.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.8%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Laagri have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Nõmme United average 2.5 goals per game
- Laagri average 2.1 goals per game
- With a combined average of 4.6 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Nõmme United43.1%1.90
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.569.3%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes69.1%1.42
Based on avg. implied odds from 9 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.93
14.5%
2-1
7.83
13%
2-2
9.65
10.5%
1-2
10.04
10.2%
1-0
10.36
9.7%
2-0
11.04
9.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.90 | Draw 3.67 | Away 3.20 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.44 | Under 2.54 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.11 | Under 5.38 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.13 | Under 1.64 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.42 | No 2.60 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.28 | 12 1.22 | X2 1.74 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.5%
Over 1.5 Goals82.8%
Over 2.5 Goals69.3%
Over 3.5 Goals43.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 19 | WLDWW | |
| 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 18 | WWDWD | |
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 17 | DWWWW | |
| 4 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 13 | DWLLW | |
| 5 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 12 | WLWWL | |
| 6 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 9 | LWWLL | |
| 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 7 | LLWLD | |
| 9 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 7 | WDLLL | |
| 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 6 | LLLWL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonNõmme UnitedLaagri
2.53Goals p.g.2.07
2.33Goals conceded p.g.1.27
13%Clean sheets27%
40%Win rate60%
4.87Avg goals in match3.33
Recent Results
Nõmme UnitedLAST MATCHES
18 AprNõmme United1–2LaagriMeistriliiga
08 AprPaide3–1Nõmme UnitedMeistriliiga
04 AprFC Levadia Tallinn1–1Nõmme UnitedMeistriliiga
21 MarNõmme United2–3TammekaMeistriliiga
14 MarNõmme United7–1VaprusMeistriliiga
10 MarFlora Tallinn3–1Nõmme UnitedCup
6Win40%
2Draw13%
7Lost47%
LAST MATCHESLaagri
18 AprNõmme United1–2LaagriMeistriliiga
08 AprLaagri0–2Kalju NommeMeistriliiga
04 AprVaprus0–2LaagriMeistriliiga
22 MarLaagri2–0Flora TallinnMeistriliiga
15 MarLaagri1–3FC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga
07 MarTrans Narva1–2LaagriMeistriliiga
9Win60%
3Draw20%
3Lost20%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 players
Nõmme United
No reported absences
Laagri
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.44 (69.3%)
Both Teams Score1.42 (69.1%)
Value Bets
Nõmme United Win1.90 (43.1%)
Laagri Win3.20 (36.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.54 (30.7%)
BTTS No2.60 (30.9%)
Speculative
Draw3.67 (20.8%)







