Nõmme United vs Kuressaare
Nõmme United
#8 · Meistriliiga
LLDLW
2 - 1
Referee: J. Jaanovits
Kuressaare
#6 · Meistriliiga
LWWLL
★ OUR PICK
Nõmme United to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Kuressaare make Nõmme United the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.70
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.66 for Nõmme United to Win. Our model calculates a 50.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Nõmme United will face Kuressaare in the Meistriliiga.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Nõmme United has a 50.6% probability of winning this match. Kuressaare has a 29.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Nõmme United average 2.5 goals per game
- With a combined average of 3.9 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Nõmme United50.6%1.66
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.570%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes68.1%1.47
Based on avg. implied odds from 8 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.39
13.6%
2-1
7.49
13.5%
2-0
9.18
11.1%
1-0
9.27
10.9%
2-2
10.38
9.9%
3-1
10.38
9.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.66 | Draw 3.99 | Away 4.01 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.44 | Under 2.56 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.11 | Under 5.34 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.13 | Under 1.64 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.47 | No 2.48 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.18 | 12 1.19 | X2 2.02 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.4%
Over 1.5 Goals82.7%
Over 2.5 Goals70%
Over 3.5 Goals43.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kalju Nomme | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 19 | WLDWW |
| 2 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 18 | WWDWD |
| 3 |  Paide | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 17 | DWWWW |
| 4 |  Laagri | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 13 | DWLLW |
| 5 |  Flora Tallinn | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 12 | WLWWL |
| 6 | Kuressaare | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 9 | LWWLL |
| 8 | Nõmme United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 7 | LLWLD |
| 9 |  Vaprus | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 7 | WDLLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 6 | LLLWL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonNõmme UnitedKuressaare
2.53Goals p.g.1.41
2.33Goals conceded p.g.2.12
13%Clean sheets18%
40%Win rate35%
4.87Avg goals in match3.53
Recent Results
Nõmme UnitedLAST MATCHES
18 AprNõmme United1–2LaagriMeistriliiga
08 AprPaide3–1Nõmme UnitedMeistriliiga
04 AprFC Levadia Tallinn1–1Nõmme UnitedMeistriliiga
21 MarNõmme United2–3TammekaMeistriliiga
14 MarNõmme United7–1VaprusMeistriliiga
10 MarFlora Tallinn3–1Nõmme UnitedCup
6Win40%
2Draw13%
7Lost47%
LAST MATCHESKuressaare
21 AprKuressaare0–1VaprusMeistriliiga
18 AprTrans Narva1–2KuressaareMeistriliiga
11 AprKuressaare3–2LaagriMeistriliiga
07 AprFlora Tallinn2–1KuressaareMeistriliiga
03 AprKuressaare0–1PaideMeistriliiga
21 MarKalju Nomme4–0KuressaareMeistriliiga
6Win35%
2Draw12%
9Lost53%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNõmme United
No reported absences
Kuressaare
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.44 (70%)
Both Teams Score1.47 (68.1%)
Value Bets
Nõmme United Win1.66 (50.6%)
Kuressaare Win4.01 (29.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.56 (30%)
BTTS No2.48 (31.9%)
Speculative
Draw3.99 (19.6%)
