Molde vs Valerenga
Molde
#4 · Eliteserien
DLLWL
5 - 1
Aker Stadion, Molde
Referee: C. Moen
Valerenga
#6 · Eliteserien
LDLDW
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.56
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.51 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 57.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Molde will face Valerenga in the Eliteserien at Aker Stadion.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Molde has a 48% probability of winning this match. Valerenga has a 30.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.8%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Molde48%1.97
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.557.9%1.51
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes60.5%1.46
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.21
13.9%
2-1
7.99
12.6%
1-0
9.94
10.1%
1-2
10.68
9.5%
2-2
10.73
9.4%
2-0
11.14
9.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.97 | Draw 3.71 | Away 3.31 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.51 | Under 2.42 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.14 | Under 5.02 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.28 | Under 1.59 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.46 | No 2.53 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.30 | 12 1.24 | X2 1.79 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93.2%
Over 1.5 Goals81.4%
Over 2.5 Goals57.9%
Over 3.5 Goals41.1%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tromso | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 16 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Lillestrom | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Viking | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Molde | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 | DWLLW |
| 5 |  Bodo/Glimt | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | WDLW |
| 6 | Valerenga | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 14 |  Brann | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 3 | LLWLL |
| 15 |  Start | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 16 |  Aalesund | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 2 | LDLDL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonMoldeValerenga
1.29Goals p.g.1.88
1.07Goals conceded p.g.1.31
21%Clean sheets38%
29%Win rate56%
2.36Avg goals in match3.19
Recent Results
MoldeLAST MATCHES
19 AprStart1–1MoldeEliteserien
06 AprMolde0–1LillestromEliteserien
21 MarViking4–1MoldeEliteserien
14 MarMolde2–0RosenborgEliteserien
05 MarMolde1–2Bodo/GlimtNM Cupen
28 FebMolde–hoddFriendlies Clubs
4Win29%
4Draw29%
5Lost36%
LAST MATCHESValerenga
19 AprValerenga0–2LillestromEliteserien
12 AprFredrikstad1–1ValerengaEliteserien
06 AprValerenga0–1VikingEliteserien
27 MarValerenga3–3IFK GoteborgFriendlies Clubs
22 MarRosenborg0–2ValerengaEliteserien
15 MarValerenga1–0SandefjordEliteserien
9Win56%
2Draw13%
5Lost31%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
7 playersMolde6
C. Oyvann
Missing FixtureInjury
D. Daga
Missing FixtureInjury
F. Dahl
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
I. Amundsen
QuestionableInjury
M. Kikkenborg
Missing FixtureAchilles Tendon Injury
O. Spiten-Nysaeter
Missing FixtureInjury
Valerenga1
M. Ofkir
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.51 (57.9%)
Both Teams Score1.46 (60.5%)
Value Bets
Molde Win1.97 (48%)
Valerenga Win3.31 (30.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.42 (42.1%)
BTTS No2.53 (39.5%)
Speculative
Draw3.71 (21.8%)
