Millwall vs QPR
Millwall
#2 · Championship
WDLWD
2 - 0
The Den, London
Referee: Tom Nield, England
QPR
#13 · Championship
LDWWW
★ OUR PICK
Millwall to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over QPR make Millwall the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.71
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.69 for Millwall to Win. Our model calculates a 57.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Millwall will face QPR in the Championship at The Den.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Millwall has a 57.3% probability of winning this match. QPR has a 21.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- QPR have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Millwall sit 2nd in the table, 11 places above their opponents
- Millwall have kept clean sheets in 44% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Millwall57.3%1.69
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.552.7%1.81
Both Teams to Score
Yes53.4%1.78
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.79
14.8%
1-0
6.88
14.6%
2-1
7.51
13.4%
2-0
7.78
12.9%
0-0
10.68
9.4%
3-1
12.30
8.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.69 | Draw 3.77 | Away 4.75 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.81 | Under 1.99 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.24 | Under 3.78 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.99 | Under 1.36 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.78 | No 1.96 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.17 | 12 1.23 | X2 2.12 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.9%
Over 1.5 Goals75.2%
Over 2.5 Goals52.7%
Over 3.5 Goals31.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 | Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 |  Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 13 | QPR | 44 | 16 | 10 | 18 | 59 | 67 | -8 | 58 | LLDDW |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonMillwallQPR
1.69Goals p.g.1.33
0.88Goals conceded p.g.1.73
44%Clean sheets13%
56%Win rate33%
2.56Avg goals in match3.07
Recent Results
MillwallLAST MATCHES
18 AprMillwall2–0QPRChampionship
10 AprWest Brom0–0MillwallChampionship
06 AprMillwall1–2NorwichChampionship
03 AprMiddlesbrough1–2MillwallChampionship
21 MarIpswich1–1MillwallChampionship
14 MarMillwall1–2BlackburnChampionship
9Win56%
3Draw19%
4Lost25%
LAST MATCHESQPR
18 AprMillwall2–0QPRChampionship
06 AprPreston1–1QPRChampionship
03 AprQPR2–1WatfordChampionship
21 MarQPR6–1PortsmouthChampionship
14 MarLeicester1–3QPRChampionship
11 MarBirmingham1–0QPRChampionship
5Win33%
3Draw20%
7Lost47%
Lineups
ConfirmedMillwall4-2-3-1Confirmed
3Zak SturgeDEF
4Tristan CramaDEF
6Caleb TaylorDEF
5Jake CooperDEF
19Josh CoburnFWD
13Anthony PattersonGK
49Derek Mazou-SackoMID
24Casper De NorreMID
11Femi AzeezMID
10Camiel NeghliMID
7Thierno BalloMID
Substitutes
2Danny McNamaraDEF
29Zak LovelaceFWD
17Macaulay LangstaffFWD
9Mihailo IvanovićFWD
22Tom WatsonFWD
15Max CrocombeGK
67Barry BannanMID
25Luke CundleMID
18Ryan LeonardMID
QPR4-2-3-1Confirmed
37Ronnie EdwardsDEF
18Rhys Norrington-DaviesDEF
6Jake Clarke-SalterDEF
27Amadou Salif MbengueDEF
22Richard KoneFWD
13Joe WalshGK
11Paul SmythMID
40Jonathan VaraneMID
20Harvey ValeMID
17Kwame PokuMID
21Kieran MorganMID
Substitutes
2Kealey AdamsonDEF
5Steve CookDEF
26Rayan KolliFWD
16Rumarn BurrellFWD
23Daniel BennieFWD
29Ben HamerGK
24Nicolas MadsenMID
10Ilias ChairMID
15Isaac HaydenMID
Unavailable Players
9 playersMillwall5
A. Doughty
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
B. Mitchell
Missing FixtureInactive
D. Kelly
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
L. Jensen
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
M. Luongo
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
QPR4
J. Dunne
Missing FixtureInactive
K. Dembele
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
K. Saito
Missing FixtureInactive
Z. Larkeche
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Millwall Win1.69 (57.3%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.81 (52.7%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.99 (47.3%)
Both Teams Score1.78 (53.4%)
BTTS No1.96 (46.6%)
Speculative
Draw3.77 (21.5%)
QPR Win4.75 (21.2%)
