Leicester vs Millwall
Leicester
#23 · Championship
LDDDL
1 - 1
King Power Stadium, Leicester
Referee: F. Hallam
Millwall
#2 · Championship
WDLWD
★ OUR PICK
Millwall to Win
Solid away form and superior underlying numbers over Leicester make Millwall the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.85
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.71 for Millwall to Win. Our model calculates a 55.5% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Leicester will face Millwall in the Championship at King Power Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Leicester has a 23.6% probability of winning this match. Millwall has a 55.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Millwall sit 2nd in the table, 21 places above their opponents
- Millwall have kept clean sheets in 44% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
2 — Millwall55.5%1.71
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.552.7%1.72
Both Teams to Score
Yes53.1%1.70
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.13
14.1%
1-2
7.47
13.5%
0-1
7.49
13.4%
0-2
8.30
12.1%
1-3
12.03
8.4%
0-0
12.23
8.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 4.37 | Draw 3.97 | Away 1.71 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.72 | Under 2.09 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.22 | Under 4.00 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.79 | Under 1.40 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.70 | No 2.06 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.09 | 12 1.22 | X2 1.19 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.7%
Over 1.5 Goals76.6%
Over 2.5 Goals52.7%
Over 3.5 Goals33.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 | Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 |  Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 | Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonLeicesterMillwall
1.07Goals p.g.1.69
1.67Goals conceded p.g.0.88
13%Clean sheets44%
7%Win rate56%
2.73Avg goals in match2.56
Recent Results
LeicesterLAST MATCHES
18 AprPortsmouth1–0LeicesterChampionship
06 AprSheffield Wednesday1–1LeicesterChampionship
03 AprLeicester2–2PrestonChampionship
21 MarWatford0–0LeicesterChampionship
14 MarLeicester1–3QPRChampionship
10 MarLeicester2–0Bristol CityChampionship
1Win7%
6Draw40%
8Lost53%
LAST MATCHESMillwall
18 AprMillwall2–0QPRChampionship
10 AprWest Brom0–0MillwallChampionship
06 AprMillwall1–2NorwichChampionship
03 AprMiddlesbrough1–2MillwallChampionship
21 MarIpswich1–1MillwallChampionship
14 MarMillwall1–2BlackburnChampionship
9Win56%
3Draw19%
4Lost25%
Lineups
ConfirmedLeicester4-2-3-1Confirmed
17Hamza ChoudhuryDEF
15Harry SouttarDEF
23Jannik VestergaardDEF
33Luke ThomasDEF
20Patson DakaFWD
1Jakub StolarczykGK
29Divine MukasaMID
7Abdul Fatawu IssahakuMID
8Harry WinksMID
22Oliver SkippMID
14Bobby De Cordova-ReidMID
Substitutes
56Olabade AlukoDEF
21Ricardo PereiraDEF
10Stephy MavididiFWD
9Jordan AyewFWD
31Asmir BegovićGK
28Jeremy MongaMID
25Louis PageMID
6Jordan JamesMID
30Aaron RamseyMID
Millwall4-2-3-1Confirmed
18Ryan LeonardDEF
4Tristan CramaDEF
3Zak SturgeDEF
5Jake CooperDEF
19Josh CoburnFWD
13Anthony PattersonGK
49Derek Mazou-SackoMID
7Thierno BalloMID
10Camiel NeghliMID
11Femi AzeezMID
24Casper De NorreMID
Substitutes
2Danny McNamaraDEF
22Tom WatsonFWD
17Macaulay LangstaffFWD
9Mihailo IvanovićFWD
15Max CrocombeGK
30Rafiq LampteyMID
25Luke CundleMID
39Will SmallboneMID
67Barry BannanMID
Unavailable Players
10 playersLeicester3
A. Ramsey
QuestionableHamstring Injury
H. Souttar
Missing FixtureInactive
V. Kristiansen
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Millwall7
A. Doughty
QuestionableCalf Injury
B. Mitchell
QuestionableInactive
D. Kelly
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
D. Mazou-Sacko
QuestionableInactive
J. Bryan
Missing FixtureInjury
L. Jensen
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
M. Luongo
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Millwall Win1.71 (55.5%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.72 (52.7%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.09 (47.3%)
Both Teams Score1.70 (53.1%)
BTTS No2.06 (46.9%)
Speculative
Leicester Win4.37 (23.6%)
Draw3.97 (20.9%)
