Lecce vs Fiorentina
Lecce
#18 · Serie A
DLLLW
1 - 1
Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Lecce
Referee: F. Maresca
Fiorentina
#15 · Serie A
DLWDW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.71
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.66 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 56.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Lecce will face Fiorentina in the Serie A at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Lecce has a 30.7% probability of winning this match. Fiorentina has a 44.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.4%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Fiorentina44.8%2.17
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.556.4%1.66
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No50.6%1.84
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.87
17.1%
0-1
6.30
15.9%
0-0
8.29
12.1%
1-2
8.47
11.9%
1-0
8.53
11.8%
0-2
9.21
10.9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.48 | Draw 3.26 | Away 2.17 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.23 | Under 1.66 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.38 | Under 2.93 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.10 | Under 1.22 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.91 | No 1.84 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.68 | 12 1.32 | X2 1.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals88.7%
Over 1.5 Goals67.9%
Over 2.5 Goals43.6%
Over 3.5 Goals22.9%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 78 | 29 | 49 | 78 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Napoli | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 69 | WLDWW |
| 3 |  AC Milan | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 66 | WLLWL |
| 4 |  Juventus | 33 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 57 | 29 | 28 | 63 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  Como | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 57 | 28 | 29 | 58 | LLDWW |
| 6 |  AS Roma | 33 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 29 | 17 | 58 | DWLWL |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 33 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 36 | DWWDW |
| 18 | Lecce | 33 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 28 | DLLLL |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 33 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 23 | 56 | -33 | 18 | LLLLL |
| 20 |  Pisa | 33 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 60 | -36 | 18 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonLecceFiorentina
0.71Goals p.g.1.41
1.36Goals conceded p.g.1.47
14%Clean sheets24%
21%Win rate41%
2.07Avg goals in match2.88
Recent Results
LecceLAST MATCHES
20 AprLecce1–1FiorentinaSerie A
06 AprLecce0–3AtalantaSerie A
22 MarAS Roma1–0LecceSerie A
14 MarNapoli2–1LecceSerie A
08 MarLecce2–1CremoneseSerie A
28 FebComo3–1LecceSerie A
3Win21%
2Draw14%
9Lost64%
LAST MATCHESFiorentina
20 AprLecce1–1FiorentinaSerie A
09 AprCrystal Palace3–0FiorentinaUEFA Europa Conference League
04 AprHellas Verona0–1FiorentinaSerie A
22 MarFiorentina1–1InterSerie A
19 MarRaków Częstochowa1–2FiorentinaUEFA Europa Conference League
16 MarCremonese1–4FiorentinaSerie A
7Win41%
4Draw24%
6Lost35%
Lineups
ConfirmedLecce4-2-3-1Confirmed
17Danilo VeigaDEF
5Jamil SiebertDEF
25Antonino GalloDEF
44Tiago GabrielDEF
99Walid CheddiraFWD
30Wladimiro FalconeGK
11Konan N'DriMID
29Lassana CoulibalyMID
50Santiago PierottiMID
79Oumar NgomMID
20Ylber RamadaniMID
Substitutes
18Gaby JeanDEF
13Matías PérezDEF
3Corrie NdabaDEF
9Nikola ŠtulićFWD
32Jasper SamoojaGK
1Christian FrüchtlGK
36Filip MarchwińskiMID
14Þórir Jóhann HelgasonMID
28Olaf GorterMID
6Alex SalaMID
80Niko KovačMID
19Lameck BandaMID
16Omri GandelmanMID
Fiorentina4-3-3Confirmed
21Robin GosensDEF
5Marin PongračićDEF
2DodôDEF
6Luca RanieriDEF
10Albert GuðmundssonFWD
91Roberto PiccoliFWD
17Jack HarrisonFWD
43David De GeaGK
44Nicolò FagioliMID
8Rolando MandragoraMID
27Cher NdourMID
Substitutes
62Luís BalboDEF
23Eman KošpoDEF
15Pietro ComuzzoDEF
60Eddy KouadioDEF
3Daniele RuganiDEF
69Giorgio PuzzoliFWD
61Riccardo BraschiFWD
19Manor SolomonFWD
53Oliver ChristensenGK
1Luca LezzeriniGK
4Marco BrescianiniMID
80Giovanni FabbianMID
22Jacopo FazziniMID
Unavailable Players
11 playersLecce6
F. Camarda
Missing FixtureShoulder Injury
F. Marchwiński
Missing FixtureJumpers knee
K. Gaspar
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Berisha
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
R. Sottil
Missing FixtureBack Injury
S. Fofana
Missing FixtureInactive
Fiorentina5
F. Parisi
Missing FixtureInactive
M. Brescianini
QuestionableInjury
M. Kean
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
N. Fortini
Missing FixtureBack Injury
T. Lamptey
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.66 (56.4%)
Value Bets
Lecce Win3.48 (30.7%)
Fiorentina Win2.17 (44.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.23 (43.6%)
Both Teams Score1.91 (49.4%)
BTTS No1.84 (50.6%)
Speculative
Draw3.26 (24.4%)
