Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük
Kocaelispor
#10 · Süper Lig
DLDDD
VS
Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Izmit
Fatih Karagümrük
#18 · Süper Lig
WDLLW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.90
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.83 (implied 54.7%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.8% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.79. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Kocaelispor will face Fatih Karagümrük in the Süper Lig at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Kocaelispor has a 51.9% probability of winning this match. Fatih Karagümrük has a 25.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Kocaelispor sit 10th in the table, 8 places above their opponents
- Both teams average a combined 1.7 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Kocaelispor51.9%1.77
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.555.8%1.83
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No51.7%1.88
Based on avg. implied odds from 11 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
6.37
15.8%
1-1
6.45
15.6%
2-1
7.70
13.1%
2-0
7.85
12.8%
0-0
9.14
11.1%
0-1
10.97
9.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.77 | Draw 3.57 | Away 4.41 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.95 | Under 1.83 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.30 | Under 3.30 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.35 | Under 1.29 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.82 | No 1.88 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.20 | 12 1.27 | X2 1.99 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.9%
Over 1.5 Goals71.8%
Over 2.5 Goals44.2%
Over 3.5 Goals27.9%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 32 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 73 | 27 | 46 | 74 | LWWDW |
| 2 |  Fenerbahçe | 32 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 71 | 34 | 37 | 70 | WLDWW |
| 3 |  Trabzonspor | 32 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 59 | 35 | 24 | 66 | DLDDW |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 56 | 36 | 20 | 59 | WDLWL |
| 5 |  Göztepe | 32 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 40 | 28 | 12 | 52 | DWDDL |
| 6 |  Başakşehir | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 53 | 34 | 19 | 51 | LWDWD |
| 10 | Kocaelispor | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 37 | DLDDD |
| 16 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 28 | LWLLL |
| 17 |  Kayserispor | 32 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 27 | DWLLL |
| 18 | Fatih Karagümrük | 32 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 24 | WDLLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonKocaelisporFatih Karagümrük
0.71Goals p.g.1
1.24Goals conceded p.g.1.47
24%Clean sheets35%
18%Win rate29%
1.94Avg goals in match2.47
Recent Results
KocaelisporLAST MATCHES
03 MayKasımpaşa1–1KocaelisporSüper Lig
26 AprGençlerbirliği S.K.1–0KocaelisporSüper Lig
18 AprKocaelispor1–1GöztepeSüper Lig
12 AprGalatasaray1–1KocaelisporSüper Lig
06 AprKocaelispor0–0BaşakşehirSüper Lig
18 MarAlanyaspor5–0KocaelisporSüper Lig
3Win18%
6Draw35%
8Lost47%
LAST MATCHESFatih Karagümrük
03 MayFatih Karagümrük1–0Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
27 AprBeşiktaş0–0Fatih KaragümrükSüper Lig
18 AprFatih Karagümrük1–2EyüpsporSüper Lig
12 AprKonyaspor3–0Fatih KaragümrükSüper Lig
05 AprFatih Karagümrük2–1RizesporSüper Lig
19 MarKayserispor1–0Fatih KaragümrükSüper Lig
5Win29%
3Draw18%
9Lost53%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKocaelispor
No reported absences
Fatih Karagümrük
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.83 (55.8%)
Value Bets
Kocaelispor Win1.77 (51.9%)
Fatih Karagümrük Win4.41 (25.1%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.95 (44.2%)
Both Teams Score1.82 (48.3%)
BTTS No1.88 (51.7%)
Speculative
Draw3.57 (23%)
