Hull City vs Birmingham

ChampionshipRegular Season - 43

Hull City

#7 · Championship

DDDWL

1 - 1

MKM Stadium, Hull

Referee: S. Martin

Birmingham

#10 · Championship

DLLLD

45.2%

Home Win

24.4%

Draw

30.4%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Under 2.5 Goals

Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.

Totals

1.95

BEST ODDS

Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.80 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Hull City will face Birmingham in the Championship at MKM Stadium.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Hull City has a 45.2% probability of winning this match. Birmingham has a 30.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.4%.

Key factors in this prediction:

Both teams average a combined 2.0 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair

Match Preview

Predictions

Closely matched

Match Result

1 — Hull City45.2%2.48

Over / Under 2.5

Under 2.555%1.80

✓ OUR PICK

Both Teams to Score

Yes51%1.74

Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

1-1

5.97

16.8%

1-0

7.74

12.9%

0-1

8.33

12%

2-1

8.95

11.3%

0-0

8.97

11.2%

1-2

9.54

10.6%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 2.48	Draw 3.28	Away 2.79
O/U 2.5	Over 1.99	Under 1.80
O/U 1.5	Over 1.31	Under 3.26
O/U 3.5	Over 3.40	Under 1.29
BTTS	Yes 1.74	No 1.99
Double Chance	1X 1.41	12 1.30	X2 1.50

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

89.6%

Over 1.5 Goals

71.3%

Over 2.5 Goals

45%

Over 3.5 Goals

27.5%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Championship Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Coventry	44	26	11	7	90	44	46	89	WDDDW
2	Millwall	45	23	11	11	61	48	13	80	WWDLW
3	Ipswich	43	22	13	8	75	45	30	79	WDLWW
4	Southampton	44	21	13	10	77	53	24	76	DWWWW
5	Middlesbrough	44	21	13	10	65	44	21	76	WDLDL
6	Wrexham	44	19	13	12	66	60	6	70	WWLLD
7	Hull City	44	20	10	14	67	63	4	70	DDLDD
10	Birmingham	44	16	12	16	54	54	0	60	WDWLL
22	Oxford United	44	10	14	20	41	56	-15	44	LLWDD
23	Leicester	45	11	16	18	56	67	-11	43	DLLDD
24	Sheffield Wednesday	44	1	12	31	26	84	-58	-3	LDDDL

Key Statistics

2025 Season

Hull CityBirmingham

1.13Goals p.g.0.87

1.53Goals conceded p.g.1.13

27%Clean sheets20%

33%Win rate27%

2.67Avg goals in match2

Recent Results

Hull CityLAST MATCHES

18 AprHull City1–1BirminghamChampionship

06 AprHull City0–0CoventryChampionship

03 AprOxford United1–1Hull CityChampionship

21 MarHull City3–1Sheffield WednesdayChampionship

14 MarWest Brom3–0Hull CityChampionship

10 MarWrexham1–2Hull CityChampionship

5Win33%

4Draw27%

6Lost40%

LAST MATCHESBirmingham

18 AprHull City1–1BirminghamChampionship

06 AprIpswich2–1BirminghamChampionship

03 AprBirmingham0–1BlackburnChampionship

21 MarDerby1–0BirminghamChampionship

14 MarBirmingham1–1Sheffield UtdChampionship

11 MarBirmingham1–0QPRChampionship

4Win27%

5Draw33%

6Lost40%

Lineups

Confirmed

Hull City4-2-3-1Confirmed

2Lewie CoyleDEF

37Paddy McNairDEF

15John EganDEF

6Semi AjayiDEF

9Oli McBurnieFWD

1Ivor PandurGK

20Amir HadžiahmetovićMID

21Joe GelhardtMID

10Mohamed BelloumiMID

7Liam MillarMID

25Matt CrooksMID

Substitutes

3Ryan GilesDEF

23Akin FamewoDEF

4Charlie HughesDEF

36Lewis KoumasFWD

22Kyle JosephFWD

13Yu HirakawaFWD

12Dillon PhillipsGK

26Kieran DowellMID

8Eliot MatazoMID

Birmingham4-2-3-1Confirmed

5Phil NeumannDEF

31Kai WagnerDEF

4Christoph KlarerDEF

26Bright Osayi-SamuelDEF

29August PriskeFWD

25James BeadleGK

23Carlos VicenteMID

24Tomoki IwataMID

14Jhon SolísMID

17Ibrahim OsmanMID

28Jay StansfieldMID

Substitutes

20Alex CochraneDEF

2Ethan LairdDEF

6Jack RobinsonDEF

33Marvin DuckschFWD

10Demarai GrayFWD

21Ryan AllsopGK

16Patrick RobertsMID

7Tommy DoyleMID

8Seung-Ho PaikMID

Unavailable Players

5 players

Hull City3

✕C. Drameh

Missing FixtureInjury

✕J. Lundstram

Missing FixtureRed Card

✕R. Slater

Missing FixtureAnkle Injury

Birmingham2

✕K. Furuhashi

Missing FixtureInactive

✕L. Buchanan

Missing FixtureKnee Injury

Betting Strategy

●High Probability

Under 2.5 Goals1.80 (55%)

●Value Bets

Hull City Win2.48 (45.2%)

Birmingham Win2.79 (30.4%)

Over 2.5 Goals1.99 (45%)

Both Teams Score1.74 (51%)

BTTS No1.99 (49%)

●Speculative

Draw3.28 (24.4%)