Hellas Verona vs AC Milan
Hellas Verona
#19 · Serie A
LLLLL
0 - 1
Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Verona
Referee: D. Chiffi
AC Milan
#3 · Serie A
WLLWL
★ OUR PICK
AC Milan to Win
Strong away form and superior underlying numbers over Hellas Verona make AC Milan the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.65
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.53 for AC Milan to Win. Our model calculates a 63.2% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Hellas Verona will face AC Milan in the Serie A at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Hellas Verona has a 15.7% probability of winning this match. AC Milan has a 63.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- AC Milan sit 3rd in the table, 16 places above their opponents
- Both teams average a combined 1.8 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
2 — AC Milan63.2%1.53
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.556.2%1.83
Both Teams to Score
No56.9%1.72
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes0-1
5.68
17.7%
0-2
6.22
16.1%
1-1
7.20
13.9%
1-2
7.79
12.9%
0-0
9.66
10.4%
0-3
9.92
10.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 6.61 | Draw 4.02 | Away 1.53 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.99 | Under 1.83 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.31 | Under 3.32 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.40 | Under 1.30 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.05 | No 1.72 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.49 | 12 1.22 | X2 1.11 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.3%
Over 1.5 Goals71.7%
Over 2.5 Goals43.8%
Over 3.5 Goals27.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 78 | 29 | 49 | 78 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Napoli | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 69 | WLDWW |
| 3 | AC Milan | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 66 | WLLWL |
| 4 |  Juventus | 33 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 57 | 29 | 28 | 63 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  Como | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 57 | 28 | 29 | 58 | LLDWW |
| 6 |  AS Roma | 33 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 29 | 17 | 58 | DWLWL |
| 18 |  Lecce | 33 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 28 | DLLLL |
| 19 | Hellas Verona | 33 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 23 | 56 | -33 | 18 | LLLLL |
| 20 |  Pisa | 33 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 60 | -36 | 18 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonHellas VeronaAC Milan
0.53Goals p.g.1.27
1.73Goals conceded p.g.0.87
13%Clean sheets33%
7%Win rate53%
2.27Avg goals in match2.13
Recent Results
Hellas VeronaLAST MATCHES
19 AprHellas Verona0–1AC MilanSerie A
11 AprTorino2–1Hellas VeronaSerie A
04 AprHellas Verona0–1FiorentinaSerie A
22 MarAtalanta1–0Hellas VeronaSerie A
15 MarHellas Verona0–2GenoaSerie A
08 MarBologna1–2Hellas VeronaSerie A
1Win7%
2Draw13%
12Lost80%
LAST MATCHESAC Milan
19 AprHellas Verona0–1AC MilanSerie A
11 AprAC Milan0–3UdineseSerie A
06 AprNapoli1–0AC MilanSerie A
21 MarAC Milan3–2TorinoSerie A
15 MarLazio1–0AC MilanSerie A
08 MarAC Milan1–0InterSerie A
8Win53%
3Draw20%
4Lost27%
Lineups
ConfirmedHellas Verona3-4-2-1Confirmed
6Nicolás ValentiniDEF
15Victor NelssonDEF
5Andrias EdmundssonDEF
7Rafik BelghaliFWD
24Antoine BernedeFWD
16Gift OrbanFWD
1Lorenzo MontipoGK
11Jean AkpaMID
2Daniel OyegokeMID
12Domagoj BradarićMID
63Roberto GagliardiniMID
Substitutes
37Armel Bella-KotchapDEF
70Fallou ChamDEF
3Martin FreseDEF
14Pol LirolaDEF
19Tobias SlotsagerDEF
41IsaacFWD
90Ioan VermesanFWD
72Junior AjayiFWD
34Simone PerilliGK
94Giacomo TonioloGK
21Abdou HarrouiMID
4Sandi LovrićMID
73Mutassim Al-MusratiMID
AC Milan3-5-2Confirmed
31Strahinja PavlovićDEF
46Matteo GabbiaDEF
23Fikayo TomoriDEF
10Rafael LeãoFWD
11Christian PulišićFWD
16Mike MaignanGK
12Adrien RabiotMID
33Davide BartesaghiMID
24Zachary AthekameMID
19Youssouf FofanaMID
14Luka ModrićMID
Substitutes
5Koni De WinterDEF
27David OdoguDEF
2Pervis EstupiñánDEF
56Alexis SaelemaekersFWD
9Niclas FullkrugFWD
7Santiago GiménezFWD
18Christopher NkunkuFWD
1Pietro TerraccianoGK
37Matteo PittarellaGK
4Samuele RicciMID
30Ardon JashariMID
8Ruben Loftus-CheekMID
Unavailable Players
6 playersHellas Verona6
A. Bella-Kotchap
QuestionableThigh Injury
A. Sarr
Missing FixtureInactive
D. Mosquera
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
K. Bowie
Missing FixtureInjury
S. Lovric
QuestionableMuscle Injury
S. Serdar
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
AC Milan
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
AC Milan Win1.53 (63.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.83 (56.2%)
BTTS No1.72 (56.9%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.99 (43.8%)
Both Teams Score2.05 (43.1%)
Speculative
Hellas Verona Win6.61 (15.7%)
Draw4.02 (21.1%)
