Genoa vs Como

Serie ARegular Season - 34

Genoa

#13 · Serie A

WLLWW

0 - 2

Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa

Referee: F. La Penna

Como

#5 · Serie A

LDWWW

30%

Home Win

22.5%

Draw

47.6%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Under 2.5 Goals

Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.

Totals

1.87

BEST ODDS

Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.80 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 51.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Genoa will face Como in the Serie A at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Genoa has a 30% probability of winning this match. Como has a 47.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.5%.

Key factors in this prediction:

Genoa have won 3 of their last 5 games
Como have won 3 of their last 5 games
Como sit 5th in the table, 8 places above their opponents
Como average 2.0 goals per game
Como have a solid defence with 0.8 goals conceded per game

Match Preview

Predictions

Closely matched

Match Result

2 — Como47.6%1.83

Over / Under 2.5

Under 2.551.4%1.80

✓ OUR PICK

Both Teams to Score

Yes51.4%1.87

Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

0-1

6.22

16.1%

1-1

6.44

15.6%

1-2

7.91

12.7%

0-2

7.93

12.7%

0-0

9.14

11%

1-0

10.11

9.9%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 4.26	Draw 3.61	Away 1.83
O/U 2.5	Over 2.03	Under 1.80
O/U 1.5	Over 1.32	Under 3.24
O/U 3.5	Over 3.54	Under 1.27
BTTS	Yes 1.87	No 1.87
Double Chance	1X 1.95	12 1.27	X2 1.21

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

89.8%

Over 1.5 Goals

71%

Over 2.5 Goals

48.6%

Over 3.5 Goals

26.5%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Inter	33	25	3	5	78	29	49	78	WWWDD
2	Napoli	34	21	6	7	52	33	19	69	WLDWW
3	AC Milan	33	19	9	5	48	27	21	66	WLLWL
4	Juventus	33	18	9	6	57	29	28	63	WWWDW
5	Como	33	16	10	7	57	28	29	58	LLDWW
6	AS Roma	33	18	4	11	46	29	17	58	DWLWL
13	Genoa	33	10	9	14	40	46	-6	39	WWLLW
18	Lecce	33	7	7	19	22	46	-24	28	DLLLL
19	Hellas Verona	33	3	9	21	23	56	-33	18	LLLLL
20	Pisa	33	2	12	19	24	60	-36	18	LLLLW

Key Statistics

2025 Season

GenoaComo

1.43Goals p.g.2

1.21Goals conceded p.g.0.79

36%Clean sheets43%

43%Win rate50%

2.64Avg goals in match2.79

Recent Results

GenoaLAST MATCHES

19 AprPisa1–2GenoaSerie A

06 AprJuventus2–0GenoaSerie A

20 MarGenoa0–2UdineseSerie A

15 MarHellas Verona0–2GenoaSerie A

08 MarGenoa2–1AS RomaSerie A

28 FebInter2–0GenoaSerie A

6Win43%

3Draw21%

5Lost36%

LAST MATCHESComo

21 AprInter3–2ComoCoppa Italia

06 AprUdinese0–0ComoSerie A

22 MarComo5–0PisaSerie A

15 MarComo2–1AS RomaSerie A

07 MarCagliari1–2ComoSerie A

03 MarComo0–0InterCoppa Italia

7Win50%

5Draw36%

2Lost14%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

5 players

Genoa2

✕B. Norton-Cuffy

Missing FixtureThigh Injury

✕M. Cornet

Missing FixtureThigh Injury

Como3

✕J. Addai

Missing FixtureAchilles Tendon Injury

✕M. Vojvoda

Missing FixtureMuscle Injury

✕S. Roberto

QuestionableMuscle Injury

Betting Strategy

●Value Bets

Genoa Win4.26 (30%)

Como Win1.83 (47.6%)

Over 2.5 Goals2.03 (48.6%)

Under 2.5 Goals1.80 (51.4%)

Both Teams Score1.87 (51.4%)

BTTS No1.87 (48.6%)

●Speculative

Draw3.61 (22.5%)