FC Thun vs FC Lugano
FC Thun
#1 · Super League
WLLWW
0 - 1
Stockhorn Arena, Thun
FC Lugano
#3 · Super League
WWDDL
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.53 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 60.5% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , FC Thun will face FC Lugano in the Super League at Stockhorn Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that FC Thun has a 49.3% probability of winning this match. FC Lugano has a 29.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.4%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- FC Thun have won 3 of their last 5 games
- FC Thun average 2.6 goals per game
- With a combined average of 4.1 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — FC Thun49.3%1.94
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.560.5%1.53
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes62%1.47
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.15
14.1%
2-1
7.95
12.7%
1-0
9.85
10.2%
2-2
10.83
9.3%
2-0
10.98
9.2%
1-2
11.01
9.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.94 | Draw 3.71 | Away 3.37 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.53 | Under 2.38 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.15 | Under 4.86 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.31 | Under 1.57 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.47 | No 2.49 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.29 | 12 1.24 | X2 1.81 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93.2%
Over 1.5 Goals80.8%
Over 2.5 Goals60.5%
Over 3.5 Goals40.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Luzern | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 61 | 3 | 40 | DLWLW |
| 1 | FC Thun | 33 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 75 | 37 | 38 | 74 | WLLWW |
| 2 |  Servette FC | 33 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 57 | 57 | 0 | 40 | DWWLW |
| 2 |  FC ST. Gallen | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 64 | 40 | 24 | 60 | DWDDW |
| 3 |  Lausanne | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 39 | LWLLW |
| 3 | FC Lugano | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 57 | WWDDL |
| 5 |  Grasshoppers | 33 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 65 | -25 | 27 | WLLLL |
| 6 |  FC Winterthur | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 35 | 86 | -51 | 19 | LLLWD |
| 6 |  BSC Young Boys | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 65 | 60 | 5 | 48 | DDDWL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonFC ThunFC Lugano
2.57Goals p.g.1.57
1Goals conceded p.g.1.07
14%Clean sheets14%
79%Win rate43%
3.57Avg goals in match2.64
Recent Results
FC ThunLAST MATCHES
18 AprFC Thun3–1FC Basel 1893Super League
04 AprFC Lugano1–0FC ThunSuper League
21 MarFC Zurich2–1FC ThunSuper League
14 MarFC Thun5–1GrasshoppersSuper League
08 MarBSC Young Boys1–2FC ThunSuper League
05 MarFC Thun2–2FC ST. GallenSuper League
11Win79%
1Draw7%
2Lost14%
LAST MATCHESFC Lugano
11 AprFC Zurich0–1FC LuganoSuper League
04 AprFC Lugano1–0FC ThunSuper League
22 MarBSC Young Boys1–1FC LuganoSuper League
17 MarFC ST. Gallen1–1FC LuganoSuper League
07 MarFC Lugano1–3FC LuzernSuper League
04 MarFC Lugano2–1FC SionSuper League
6Win43%
6Draw43%
2Lost14%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Thun
No reported absences
FC Lugano
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.53 (60.5%)
Both Teams Score1.47 (62%)
Value Bets
FC Thun Win1.94 (49.3%)
FC Lugano Win3.37 (29.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.38 (39.5%)
BTTS No2.49 (38%)
Speculative
Draw3.71 (21.4%)
