FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893
FC Thun
#1 · Super League
WLLWW
3 - 1
Stockhorn Arena, Thun
Referee: M. Turkes
FC Basel 1893
#4 · Super League
LDLWW
★ OUR PICK
FC Thun to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over FC Basel 1893 make FC Thun the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.85
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.80 (implied 55.6%) for FC Thun to Win. Our model calculates a 56.0% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.79. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , FC Thun will face FC Basel 1893 in the Super League at Stockhorn Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that FC Thun has a 56% probability of winning this match. FC Basel 1893 has a 24% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- FC Thun have won 3 of their last 5 games
- FC Thun average 2.6 goals per game
- With a combined average of 4.0 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — FC Thun56%1.80
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.567.1%1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes65%1.39
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
8.17
12.3%
2-1
8.17
12.3%
2-2
10.31
9.8%
3-1
11.30
9%
1-0
11.73
8.6%
2-0
11.84
8.5%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.80 | Draw 3.98 | Away 3.72 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.38 | Under 2.82 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.10 | Under 6.13 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.00 | Under 1.78 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.39 | No 2.78 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.25 | 12 1.21 | X2 1.94 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.2%
Over 1.5 Goals84.7%
Over 2.5 Goals67.1%
Over 3.5 Goals47.1%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Luzern | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 61 | 3 | 40 | DLWLW |
| 1 | FC Thun | 33 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 75 | 37 | 38 | 74 | WLLWW |
| 2 |  Servette FC | 33 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 57 | 57 | 0 | 40 | DWWLW |
| 2 |  FC ST. Gallen | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 64 | 40 | 24 | 60 | DWDDW |
| 3 |  Lausanne | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 39 | LWLLW |
| 3 |  FC Lugano | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 57 | WWDDL |
| 4 | FC Basel 1893 | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 51 | 45 | 6 | 53 | LDWWL |
| 5 |  Grasshoppers | 33 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 65 | -25 | 27 | WLLLL |
| 6 |  FC Winterthur | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 35 | 86 | -51 | 19 | LLLWD |
| 6 |  BSC Young Boys | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 65 | 60 | 5 | 48 | DDDWL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonFC ThunFC Basel 1893
2.57Goals p.g.1.4
1Goals conceded p.g.1.93
14%Clean sheets13%
79%Win rate33%
3.57Avg goals in match3.33
Recent Results
FC ThunLAST MATCHES
18 AprFC Thun3–1FC Basel 1893Super League
04 AprFC Lugano1–0FC ThunSuper League
21 MarFC Zurich2–1FC ThunSuper League
14 MarFC Thun5–1GrasshoppersSuper League
08 MarBSC Young Boys1–2FC ThunSuper League
05 MarFC Thun2–2FC ST. GallenSuper League
11Win79%
1Draw7%
2Lost14%
LAST MATCHESFC Basel 1893
18 AprFC Thun3–1FC Basel 1893Super League
04 AprFC Basel 18933–3BSC Young BoysSuper League
26 MarFC Basel 18932–5FC VaduzFriendlies Clubs
22 MarFC Winterthur0–2FC Basel 1893Super League
15 MarFC Basel 18933–1Servette FCSuper League
08 MarFC ST. Gallen3–0FC Basel 1893Super League
5Win33%
2Draw13%
8Lost53%
Lineups
ConfirmedFC Thun4-2-2-2Confirmed
27Michael HeuleDEF
19Jan BamertDEF
4Genís MontolioDEF
47Fabio FehrDEF
18Christopher IbayiFWD
74Elmin RastoderFWD
24Niklas SteffenGK
7Kastriot ImeriMID
77Franz-Ethan MeichtryMID
6Leonardo BertoneMID
16Justin RothMID
Substitutes
37Lucien DählerDEF
23Marco BurkiDEF
9Furkan DursunFWD
96Brighton LabeauFWD
33Marc GutbubFWD
25Tim SpycherGK
14Mattias KäitMID
20Noah RuppMID
78Valmir MatoshiMID
FC Basel 18934-2-3-1Confirmed
3Nicolas VouillozDEF
31Dominik SchmidDEF
24Flavius DaniliucDEF
4Bećir OmeragićDEF
23Albian AjetiFWD
1Marwin HitzGK
11Bénie TraoréMID
10Xherdan ShaqiriMID
21Ibrahim SalahMID
5MetinhoMID
22Leo LeroyMID
Substitutes
29Moussa CisséDEF
25Finn van BreemenDEF
27Kevin RüeggDEF
18Julien DuranvilleFWD
37Giacomo KolotoFWD
17Moritz BroschinskiFWD
13Mirko SalviGK
8Koba KoindrediMID
14Andrej BačaninMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Thun
No reported absences
FC Basel 1893
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
FC Thun Win1.80 (56%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.38 (67.1%)
Both Teams Score1.39 (65%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.82 (32.9%)
BTTS No2.78 (35%)
Speculative
Draw3.98 (20%)
FC Basel 1893 Win3.72 (24%)
