FC Orenburg vs Nizhny Novgorod
FC Orenburg
#11 · Premier League
LDLLW
2 - 1
Gazovik Stadium, Orenburg
Referee: A. Frolov
Nizhny Novgorod
#15 · Premier League
DDLLW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.81
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.78 (implied 56.1%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 57.8% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.73. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , FC Orenburg will face Nizhny Novgorod in the Premier League at Gazovik Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that FC Orenburg has a 50% probability of winning this match. Nizhny Novgorod has a 26.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.7%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — FC Orenburg50%1.87
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.557.8%1.78
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No53.1%1.82
Based on avg. implied odds from 4 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
5.98
16.7%
1-1
6.14
16.3%
2-0
7.81
12.8%
2-1
8.01
12.5%
0-0
8.89
11.2%
0-1
10.37
9.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.87 | Draw 3.52 | Away 4.38 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.12 | Under 1.78 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.33 | Under 3.15 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.68 | Under 1.26 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.89 | No 1.82 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.21 | 12 1.30 | X2 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.8%
Over 1.5 Goals70.2%
Over 2.5 Goals42.2%
Over 3.5 Goals25.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zenit | 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 45 | 17 | 28 | 56 | DWDWW |
| 2 |  FC Krasnodar | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 51 | 19 | 32 | 54 | DDWWW |
| 3 |  Lokomotiv | 26 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 51 | 33 | 18 | 49 | DWDLW |
| 4 |  Baltika | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 36 | 15 | 21 | 45 | DDDWW |
| 5 |  Spartak Moscow | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 33 | 8 | 45 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  CSKA Moscow | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 44 | DDLWW |
| 11 | FC Orenburg | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 23 | WLDDL |
| 14 |  Krylia Sovetov | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 47 | -20 | 23 | LDDLD |
| 15 | Nizhny Novgorod | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 16 |  FC Sochi | 26 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 18 | WWWLL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonFC OrenburgNizhny Novgorod
1.07Goals p.g.1.07
0.93Goals conceded p.g.1.27
14%Clean sheets20%
36%Win rate33%
2Avg goals in match2.33
Recent Results
FC OrenburgLAST MATCHES
18 AprFC Orenburg0–1LokomotivPremier League
04 AprDynamo3–3FC OrenburgPremier League
22 MarFC Orenburg0–2Spartak MoscowPremier League
13 MarDinamo Makhachkala1–0FC OrenburgPremier League
08 MarFC Orenburg2–1ZenitPremier League
04 MarKrylia Sovetov2–0FC OrenburgCup
5Win36%
1Draw7%
5Lost36%
LAST MATCHESNizhny Novgorod
18 AprNizhny Novgorod1–1DynamoPremier League
11 AprBaltika2–2Nizhny NovgorodPremier League
05 AprNizhny Novgorod0–1FC RostovPremier League
21 MarFC Krasnodar5–0Nizhny NovgorodPremier League
15 MarNizhny Novgorod3–0Krylia SovetovPremier League
07 MarNizhny Novgorod2–1FC SochiPremier League
5Win33%
3Draw20%
5Lost33%
Lineups
ConfirmedFC Orenburg4-2-3-1Confirmed
18Fahd MoufiDEF
4Danila KhotulevDEF
26Emil TsenovDEF
6Jhon PalaciosDEF
9Maksim SaveljevFWD
1Bogdan OvsyannikovGK
7Emircan GürlükMID
8Damián PueblaMID
16Jordhy ThompsonMID
57Evgeniy BolotovMID
37Du QueirozMID
Substitutes
38Artem KasimovDEF
3Danila VedernikovDEF
32Alexis CanteroDEF
19Alexandre JesusFWD
29Anas El MahraouiFWD
88Maksim RudakovGK
27Renat GolybinMID
22Pavel GorelovMID
78Ruslan KulMID
65Ivan IvashchenkoMID
2Stanislav PoroykovMID
33Irakli KvekveskiriMID
Nizhny Novgorod4-3-3Confirmed
3Yuriy KoledinDEF
4Ilya KirschDEF
2Viktor AleksandrovDEF
70Maksim ShnaptsevDEF
21Renaldo CephasFWD
14Matvey UrvantsevFWD
10Adrian BalboaFWD
30Nikita MedvedevGK
29Luka TičićMID
17Egor SmelovMID
77Andrey IvlevMID
Substitutes
32Vadim PigasDEF
16Yaroslav KrashevskiyDEF
23Juan CastilloDEF
88Daniil LesovoyFWD
27Vyacheslav GrulevFWD
51Egor KoshkinGK
1Vadim LukyanovGK
69Artem SidorenkoMID
19Nikita ErmakovMID
78Nikolay KalinskiyMID
8Mamadou MaigaMID
Unavailable Players
5 playersFC Orenburg2
F. Moufi
QuestionableInjury
G. Guzina
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Nizhny Novgorod3
A. Ektov
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
O. Olusegun
Missing FixtureRed Card
S. Karic
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.78 (57.8%)
Value Bets
FC Orenburg Win1.87 (50%)
Nizhny Novgorod Win4.38 (26.3%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.12 (42.2%)
Both Teams Score1.89 (46.9%)
BTTS No1.82 (53.1%)
Speculative
Draw3.52 (23.7%)
