Derby vs Oxford United
Derby
#8 · Championship
WWLWW
1 - 0
Pride Park, Derby
Referee: Sam Allison, England
Oxford United
#22 · Championship
LDDLD
★ OUR PICK
Derby to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Oxford United make Derby the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.97
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.91 (implied 52.3%) for Derby to Win. Our model calculates a 58.4% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.71. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Derby will face Oxford United in the Championship at Pride Park.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Derby has a 58.4% probability of winning this match. Oxford United has a 18.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.4%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Derby are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- Derby sit 8th in the table, 14 places above their opponents
- Derby have kept clean sheets in 40% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Derby58.4%1.91
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.554.2%1.79
Both Teams to Score
No50.8%1.88
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.22
16.1%
1-0
6.42
15.6%
2-1
7.85
12.8%
2-0
8.44
11.9%
0-0
8.86
11.3%
0-1
9.94
10.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.91 | Draw 3.40 | Away 3.98 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.01 | Under 1.79 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.31 | Under 3.23 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.47 | Under 1.28 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.84 | No 1.88 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.22 | 12 1.27 | X2 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.4%
Over 1.5 Goals71%
Over 2.5 Goals45.8%
Over 3.5 Goals26.9%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 |  Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 |  Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 8 | Derby | 44 | 19 | 9 | 16 | 63 | 55 | 8 | 66 | LWLWL |
| 22 | Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonDerbyOxford United
1.67Goals p.g.0.8
1.07Goals conceded p.g.1.33
40%Clean sheets20%
60%Win rate20%
2.73Avg goals in match2.13
Recent Results
DerbyLAST MATCHES
18 AprDerby1–0Oxford UnitedChampionship
06 AprDerby2–0Stoke CityChampionship
03 AprCoventry3–2DerbyChampionship
21 MarDerby1–0BirminghamChampionship
16 MarPortsmouth0–1DerbyChampionship
10 MarMillwall1–0DerbyChampionship
9Win60%
1Draw7%
5Lost33%
LAST MATCHESOxford United
18 AprDerby1–0Oxford UnitedChampionship
06 AprPortsmouth2–2Oxford UnitedChampionship
03 AprOxford United1–1Hull CityChampionship
21 MarSouthampton2–0Oxford UnitedChampionship
14 MarOxford United1–1CharltonChampionship
11 MarOxford United1–0BlackburnChampionship
3Win20%
5Draw33%
7Lost47%
Lineups
ConfirmedDerby4-2-3-1Confirmed
23Joe WardDEF
2Derry MurkinDEF
5Matt ClarkeDEF
28Dion SandersonDEF
9Carlton MorrisFWD
1Jacob Widell ZetterströmGK
27Lewis TravisMID
18David OzohMID
34Jaydon BanelMID
19Sammie SzmodicsMID
25Ben Brereton DíazMID
Substitutes
6Sondre LangåsDEF
4Danny BatthDEF
3Craig ForsythDEF
22Max JohnstonDEF
15Lars-Jørgen SalvesenFWD
31Josh VickersGK
54Cruz AllenMID
37Owen EamesMID
29Oscar FrauloMID
Oxford United4-2-3-1Confirmed
6Michal HelikDEF
15Brodie SpencerDEF
3Ciaron BrownDEF
2Sam LongDEF
27Will LankshearFWD
1Jamie CummingGK
33Jamie DonleyMID
17Stanley MillsMID
8Cameron BrannaganMID
5Yunus KonakMID
44Myles Peart-HarrisMID
Substitutes
24Hidde ter AvestDEF
37Christ MakossoDEF
9Mark HarrisFWD
11Ole RomenyFWD
10Aidomo EmakhuFWD
21Matt IngramGK
32Jin-woo JeonMID
38Jamie McDonnellMID
4Will VaulksMID
Unavailable Players
7 playersDerby3
B. Clark
Missing FixtureInjury
C. Elder
Missing FixtureToe Injury
P. Agyemang
Missing FixtureAchilles Tendon Injury
Oxford United4
B. De Keersmaecker
Missing FixtureShoulder Injury
G. Leigh
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
J. Currie
Missing FixtureInactive
T. Goodrham
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Derby Win1.91 (58.4%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals2.01 (45.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.79 (54.2%)
Both Teams Score1.84 (49.2%)
BTTS No1.88 (50.8%)
Speculative
Draw3.40 (23.4%)
Oxford United Win3.98 (18.2%)
