Cremonese vs Lazio
Cremonese
#17 · Serie A
DLWLL
VS
Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona
Lazio
#9 · Serie A
DWLDW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.86
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.80 (implied 55.5%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 56.0% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.79. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Cremonese will face Lazio in the Serie A at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Cremonese has a 30.2% probability of winning this match. Lazio has a 46% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.8%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Lazio sit 9th in the table, 8 places above their opponents
- Both teams average a combined 1.6 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Lazio46%2.09
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.556%1.80
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No51.5%1.95
Based on avg. implied odds from 9 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.94
16.9%
0-1
6.77
14.8%
1-2
8.14
12.3%
0-2
9.28
10.8%
0-0
9.48
10.6%
1-0
9.51
10.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.40 | Draw 3.35 | Away 2.09 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.03 | Under 1.80 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.31 | Under 3.28 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.51 | Under 1.27 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.80 | No 1.95 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.72 | 12 1.30 | X2 1.29 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.9%
Over 1.5 Goals71.4%
Over 2.5 Goals44%
Over 3.5 Goals26.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 78 | 29 | 49 | 78 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Napoli | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 69 | WLDWW |
| 3 |  AC Milan | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 66 | WLLWL |
| 4 |  Juventus | 33 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 57 | 29 | 28 | 63 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  Como | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 57 | 28 | 29 | 58 | LLDWW |
| 6 |  AS Roma | 33 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 29 | 17 | 58 | DWLWL |
| 9 | Lazio | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 34 | 30 | 4 | 47 | WLDWW |
| 17 | Cremonese | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 28 | LDLLW |
| 18 |  Lecce | 33 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 28 | DLLLL |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 33 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 23 | 56 | -33 | 18 | LLLLL |
| 20 |  Pisa | 33 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 60 | -36 | 18 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonCremoneseLazio
0.57Goals p.g.1.06
1.79Goals conceded p.g.1.12
29%Clean sheets31%
7%Win rate31%
2.36Avg goals in match2.19
Recent Results
CremoneseLAST MATCHES
19 AprCremonese0–0TorinoSerie A
05 AprCremonese1–2BolognaSerie A
21 MarParma0–2CremoneseSerie A
16 MarCremonese1–4FiorentinaSerie A
08 MarLecce2–1CremoneseSerie A
01 MarCremonese0–2AC MilanSerie A
1Win7%
4Draw29%
9Lost64%
LAST MATCHESLazio
22 AprAtalanta1–1LazioCoppa Italia
18 AprNapoli0–2LazioSerie A
13 AprFiorentina1–0LazioSerie A
04 AprLazio1–1ParmaSerie A
22 MarBologna0–2LazioSerie A
15 MarLazio1–0AC MilanSerie A
5Win31%
7Draw44%
4Lost25%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCremonese
No reported absences
Lazio
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.80 (56%)
Value Bets
Cremonese Win3.40 (30.2%)
Lazio Win2.09 (46%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.03 (44%)
Both Teams Score1.80 (48.5%)
BTTS No1.95 (51.5%)
Speculative
Draw3.35 (23.8%)
