Coventry vs Portsmouth
Coventry
#1 · Championship
WDDWW
5 - 1
Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
Referee: A. Kitchen
Portsmouth
#20 · Championship
LWWDD
★ OUR PICK
Coventry to Win
Strong home form and superior underlying numbers over Portsmouth make Coventry the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.62
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.56 for Coventry to Win. Our model calculates a 63.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Coventry will face Portsmouth in the Championship at Coventry Building Society Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Coventry has a 63% probability of winning this match. Portsmouth has a 16.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Coventry have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Coventry are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Coventry sit 1st in the table, 19 places above their opponents
- Coventry have kept clean sheets in 44% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Coventry63%1.56
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.553.8%1.69
Both Teams to Score
Yes52.9%1.73
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
7.22
13.9%
1-1
7.31
13.7%
2-1
7.48
13.4%
2-0
7.62
13.2%
3-1
11.21
9%
3-0
11.26
8.9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.56 | Draw 4.16 | Away 5.42 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.69 | Under 2.14 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.20 | Under 4.13 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.71 | Under 1.42 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.73 | No 2.01 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.14 | 12 1.20 | X2 2.36 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.9%
Over 1.5 Goals77.4%
Over 2.5 Goals53.8%
Over 3.5 Goals34.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 |  Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 |  Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 44 | 13 | 12 | 19 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 51 | LWWWD |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonCoventryPortsmouth
1.88Goals p.g.1.18
0.81Goals conceded p.g.1.53
44%Clean sheets18%
62%Win rate29%
2.69Avg goals in match2.71
Recent Results
CoventryLAST MATCHES
21 AprCoventry5–1PortsmouthChampionship
11 AprCoventry0–0Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
06 AprHull City0–0CoventryChampionship
03 AprCoventry3–2DerbyChampionship
21 MarSwansea0–3CoventryChampionship
14 MarCoventry1–2SouthamptonChampionship
10Win63%
3Draw19%
3Lost19%
LAST MATCHESPortsmouth
21 AprCoventry5–1PortsmouthChampionship
18 AprPortsmouth1–0LeicesterChampionship
11 AprMiddlesbrough0–1PortsmouthChampionship
06 AprPortsmouth2–2Oxford UnitedChampionship
03 AprNorwich1–1PortsmouthChampionship
21 MarQPR6–1PortsmouthChampionship
5Win29%
4Draw24%
8Lost47%
Lineups
ConfirmedCoventry4-2-3-1Confirmed
27Milan van EwijkDEF
3Jay DasilvaDEF
15Liam KitchingDEF
4Bobby ThomasDEF
11Haji WrightFWD
19Carl RushworthGK
10Ephron Mason-ClarkMID
5Jack RudoniMID
14Romain EsseMID
6Matt GrimesMID
16Frank OnyekaMID
Substitutes
22Joel LatibeaudiereDEF
21Jake BidwellDEF
26Luke WoolfendenDEF
20Kaine Kesler-HaydenDEF
9Ellis SimmsFWD
23Brandon Thomas-AsanteFWD
13Ben WilsonGK
28Josh EcclesMID
29Victor TorpMID
Portsmouth4-2-3-1Confirmed
5Regan PooleDEF
2Jordan WilliamsDEF
55Madiodio DiaDEF
3Connor OgilvieDEF
9Colby BishopFWD
1Nicolas SchmidGK
10Adrian SegečićMID
36Conor ChaplinMID
27Millenic AlliMID
38Ebou AdamsMID
21Andre DozzellMID
Substitutes
6Conor ShaughnessyDEF
17Ibane BowatDEF
40Jacob BrownFWD
29Harvey BlairFWD
26Josef BursikGK
16Luke Le RouxMID
23Josh MurphyMID
7Marlon PackMID
8John SwiftMID
Unavailable Players
11 playersCoventry3
M. Brau
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
O. Dovin
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
T. Sakamoto
Missing FixtureInactive
Portsmouth8
A. Alese
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
C. Shaughnessy
QuestionableInactive
F. Umeh
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
G. Caballero
Missing FixtureInactive
K. Anderson
Missing FixtureInjury
M. Kosznovszky
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
T. Devlin
Missing FixtureInjury
Z. Swanson
Missing FixtureInactive
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Coventry Win1.56 (63%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.69 (53.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.14 (46.2%)
Both Teams Score1.73 (52.9%)
BTTS No2.01 (47.1%)
Speculative
Draw4.16 (20.1%)
Portsmouth Win5.42 (16.9%)
